Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD
Steel Dynamics has pulled back to $231.01 from prior levels near $265, with RSI at 34.8 approaching oversold and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $248.71 but still above the 200-day MA of $205.48. The fundamental picture remains mixed: FY2025 revenue grew 3.6% and FCF recovered to $501M positive from negative territory, but gross margin compressed to 13.01% (from 15.98% in FY2024 and 27.48% in FY2022) and EPS fell 18.8% to $7.99, while total debt rose to $4.21B from $3.35B.
The stock trades at a 5.3% PE premium and 10.1% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median, which is difficult to justify given the multi-year margin erosion, though BlackRock's new 12.4M-share position (~8.65% ownership) reported in the Q2 2026 13F is a notable institutional vote of confidence.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Gross margin has declined every year from 29.13% in FY2021 to 13.01% in FY2025, with no clear inflection signal in the data provided.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $4.21B in FY2025 from $3.35B in FY2024 and $3.07B in FY2023, even as capex normalized to $948M from $1.87B.
- CEO transition uncertainty. Theresa Wagler will become CEO effective January 1, 2027, with Mark Millett moving to Executive Chairman, introducing leadership risk during a cyclical downturn.
- Valuation premium amid deteriorating earnings. STLD trades at 20.87x PE versus a peer median of 19.82x and 12.37x EV/EBITDA versus 11.24x median, despite EPS declining 18.8% in FY2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025/FY2024/FY2022 · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy · fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 free_cash_flow · fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 total_debt. Orin's read on STLD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All STLD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $863.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $835.2M | 0.1% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 183 Form 4 filings, net −$31.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STLD
Orin answers questions about STLD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.2× | 8.0× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1× | 5.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.72× | 1.01× | — |
| P/B | 3.8× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.98σ from its own mean).
24.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$274
$260 – $300 · +17% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $35B | 22.2× | 13.1× | 14.6% | 7.8% | 18% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $60B | 20.9× | 11.4× | 15.5% | 8.0% | 14% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $25B | 15.8× | 11.0× | 40.1% | 9.6% | 19% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20B | 23.0× | 14.5× | 26.9% | 5.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $98 | $269.67 · −64% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $63 | $269.67 · −77% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.