Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Steel Dynamics' cyclical earnings recovery remains intact — sequential EPS has climbed from $1.82 in Q4 2025 to $2.78, $3.69, and now $5.26 in Q3 2026 — but the just-reported Q3 result missed estimates by 4.0% (actual $5.26 vs. estimated $5.48), introducing doubt about the pace of margin expansion.
The stock at $240.54 trades at a PE of 22.12 versus a peer median of 10.77 (a 105% premium) and a PS of 1.71 versus a peer median of 0.54, pricing in a continuation of the earnings rebound that the Q3 miss partially undercuts. Full-year 2025 gross margin of 13.0% remains well below the 21.5% level of 2023, and insiders have been net sellers of 60,125 shares over the trailing 24 months. Hold pending evidence that Q3's miss is a one-quarter soft patch rather than the start of deceleration at a premium valuation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium at risk. At a PE of 22.12 versus peer median 10.77 and PS of 1.71 versus peer median 0.54, any earnings disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating toward peer multiples.
- Margin compression persistence. Full-year 2025 gross margin of 13.0% is far below the 27.5% achieved in 2022; if steel prices soften, margins could remain depressed despite revenue growth.
- Tariff and trade policy uncertainty. Recent news highlights fresh uncertainty over U.S. trade policy weighing on the steel group, with STLD slipping alongside peers on tariff doubt as of October 15, 2026.
- Insider and smart money caution. Insiders net sold 60,125 shares over 24 months, and smart money score is slightly negative at -0.01 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 19 Oct · quarterly results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on STLD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 56.2% over twelve months, from $158.02 on 27 Oct 2025 to $246.80 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $282.76 on 12 Jun 2026; the last close is 12.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.5M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All STLD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $863.6M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $835.2M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $767.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $568.2M | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $488.9M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 189 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$11.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STLD
Orin answers questions about STLD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NASDAQ is at 26.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.1× | — | 26.4× |
| P/S | 1.59×above usual | 1.01× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0×above usual | 5.7× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×above usual | 2.2× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.0× to 21.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $275 (from $260 to $299) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$275
$260 – $299 · +11% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $35B | 18.1× | 11.0× | 15.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $8B | lost money | 15.7× | 1.9% | −2.4% | −8% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | $7B | 10.8× | 7.7× | 18.6% | 7.0% | 15% |
| FRDFriedman Industries, Incorporated | $256M | 6.2× | 4.2× | 9.4% | 4.6% | 25% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | $876M | 111× | 11.4× | 8.2% | 0.7% | 1% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $61B | 17.2× | 9.7× | 17.3% | 9.3% | 16% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 19.9× | 10.4% | −0.6% | −3% |
- CLF, WS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 26.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now26.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $94 a share — 61% below the $244.57 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $94 | 61% below $244.57 |
| Levered | $60 | 75% below $244.57 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.