STMicroelectronics N.V. STM
STM remains a hold as FY2025 results confirm a deep cyclical trough — revenue fell 10.8% to $11.84B, operating margin compressed to 2.74% from 26.67% in FY2023, and EPS collapsed to $0.18 from $4.46 — yet forward-looking indicators suggest stabilization may be forming: smart money turned slightly positive (score 0.0491 as of Q2 2026, up from negative readings through mid-2025) with fund count rising to 38, management targets $2B+ in AI datacenter revenue by 2027, and an active buyback is underway. The 95.5x trailing P/E — 202% above the peer median of 31.6x — reflects depressed earnings rather than overvaluation on a normalized basis, while the 3.30x P/S at a 28% discount to peers suggests the market is pricing a revenue trough, not structural impairment.
Without confirmed margin or FCF recovery in reported results — FY2025 FCF remained negative at -$52M — the risk/reward is not yet compelling enough to commit.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical downturn deepens. Automotive and industrial end markets could weaken further, extending the revenue decline that has persisted since FY2023's $17.29B peak.
- AI datacenter ramp disappoints. Management's $2B+ 2027 AI datacenter target may prove optimistic if optical and power design wins fail to convert to meaningful revenue.
- Margin recovery delayed. Operating margin at 2.74% in FY2025 is a fraction of the 26.67% achieved in FY2023; further compression would push the business toward operating losses.
- Persistent negative FCF. FY2025 FCF of -$52M remains negative despite capex cuts to $2.2B from $4.54B in FY2023, limiting financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2023 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 and FY2023 annual · 13F composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on STM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All STM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $478.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $385.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $355.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Citadel Advisors | $288.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P | $232.5M | 0.3% of fund |
| Duquesne Family Office | $232.4M | 4.5% of fund |
72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about STM
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 97.1× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.35× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$77
$60 – $100 · +50% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $46B | 97.1× | 20.3× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| CDWCDW Corporation | $18B | 16.7× | 12.8× | 21.4% | 4.6% | 43% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $42B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $33B | 38.4× | 16.5× | 9.2% | 2.6% | 62% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $28B | 46.3× | 23.3× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | $16B | 13.2× | 10.2× | 84.1% | 41.4% | 33% |
| UMCUnited Microelectronics Corporation | $60B | 23.0× | 12.0× | 30.6% | 33.3% | 21% |
| VRSNVeriSign, Inc. | $26B | 31.6× | 23.2× | 88.5% | 49.8% | -39% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 207.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.