State Street Corporation STT
State Street's FY2025 fundamentals are genuinely improving — diluted EPS reached $9.40 (up 14.5% YoY), total debt was cut by $7B to $29.8B, and free cash flow rebounded to $4.3B from -$14.1B in FY2024 — but revenue growth decelerated sharply to 3.0% from 19.6% the prior year, and the stock at $193.04 now trades 34% above its 200-day MA ($143.84) with an RSI of 68.9, while DCF analyses peg intrinsic value at roughly $157. Persistent insider selling — the CEO, CRO, and an EVP all sold shares in July 2026 at ~$184 — and a 38% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median (15.5x vs 11.2x) leave no margin of safety despite the operational progress and the Santander CACEIS Latam acquisition expanding the franchise.
What could go wrong
- Valuation stretch. EV/EBITDA of 15.5x sits 38% above the peer median of 11.2x, and DCF analyses published in August 2026 estimate intrinsic value at $157 versus a $193 close, suggesting ~19% downside to fair value.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $54.6M in value across 86 dispositions versus 55 acquisitions; the CEO, CRO, and an EVP all sold in July 2026 at ~$184 per share.
- Decelerating growth. FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 3.0% YoY from 19.6% in FY2024, and net income growth moderated to 9.6% from 38.2%, raising questions about whether the re-rating is justified by fundamentals.
- Technical overextension. RSI-14 at 68.9 and price 34% above the 200-day MA ($143.84) as of 2026-08-17 indicate overbought conditions that historically precede mean reversion.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics, FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on STT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All STT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 149 Form 4 filings, net −$55.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STT
Orin answers questions about STT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.7× | 12.2× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.18× | 1.62× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.2× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+3.99σ from its own mean).
0.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$182
$155 – $200 · +1% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.5× | 7.3× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $17B | 21.7× | 17.7× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $166B | 25.3× | 16.0× | 55.7% | 24.1% | 12% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $142B | 26.0× | 18.2× | 88.8% | 21.9% | 41% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $14B | — | 9.6× | 67.4% | -0.9% | -1% |
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $32B | 14.9× | — | 59.8% | 14.8% | 17% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 16.2× | 12.4× | 48.5% | 9.9% | 13% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.9× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $554 | $160.84 · +245% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $298 | $160.84 · +85% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.