Seagate Technology Holdings plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Seagate's FY2026 results (ended 3 Jul) show exceptional operational momentum — revenue grew 34.1% to $12.2B with gross margin expanding to 45.6% and EPS of $13.90, while quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 48.5% YoY in Q4 alongside eight consecutive EPS beats.
However, even after a pullback to $783 as of 9 Oct, the stock trades at 53.9x earnings — a 208% premium to the peer median of 17.5x — with persistent insider net selling of $608M over 24 months and emerging competitive pressure from Toshiba's HDD expansion plans. The deteriorating technical picture (price below the 50-day MA at $855, deeply negative MACD histogram of -14.8) and cooling storage sentiment following Samsung's disappointing preliminary results reinforce the need to wait for evidence that FY2027 can sustain this trajectory before paying these multiples.
What could go wrong
- Competitive supply expansion. Toshiba's plan to expand HDD production and the contested bidding for TDK's magnetic-heads unit threaten Seagate's nearline HDD pricing power, with STX already dropping 8% on the news as of 6 Oct.
- Extreme valuation premium. At 53.9x PE and 41.8x EV/EBITDA, STX trades at 208% and 153% premiums to peer medians respectively, leaving no room for any growth disappointment.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 773 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions, netting -$608M in value; CEO Mosley continued selling shares as recently as 1 Oct.
- AI storage demand cooling. Samsung's disappointing preliminary results prompted a broad memory/storage selloff on 8 Oct, signaling potential fatigue in the AI-driven storage trade.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q4 FY26 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on STX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 190% over twelve months, from $230.32 on 27 Oct 2025 to $667.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,094.04 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 39.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.7M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All STX filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 9 Sep | — | on file |
| DEF 14A | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 4 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 5 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-K | 4 Aug | Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported revenue of $12.2 billion for fiscal year 2026, a 34% increase from $9.1 billion in fiscal year 2025, driven by higher nearline exabytes… | read |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 28 Jul | Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results on July 28, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 12 Jun | Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company, will redeem all outstanding 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 on September 8, 2026. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $14.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $14.1B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $9.6B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $7.9B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.7B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $7.3B | 0.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $5.0B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.0B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.6B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.2B | 0.6% |
160 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 1283 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$746.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STX
Orin answers questions about STX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.9× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 11.0× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 44.1×below usual | 111× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 9.2× to 64.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 1.30× to 14.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 8.5× to 54.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,112 (from $865 to $1,600) — 67% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,112
$865 – $1,600 · +67% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $152B | 33.9× | 27.1× | 50.4% | 31.9% | 245% |
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | $45B | 31.7× | 21.3× | 70.6% | 19.2% | 114% |
| PEverpure, Inc | $46B | 183× | 107× | 69.7% | 5.9% | 17% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $23B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $189B | 16.8× | 13.9× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $74 a share — 89% below the $672.63 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $74 | 89% below $672.63 |
| Levered | $65 | 90% below $672.63 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.