Seagate Technology Holdings plc STX
Seagate's FY2026 (ended 2026-07-03) results are outstanding — revenue grew 34.1% to $12.2B, EPS doubled to $13.90, gross margin reached 45.6%, and free cash flow hit $3.1B as AI-driven nearline HDD demand and HAMR technology adoption fueled pricing power. However, at $832.56 the stock trades at 57.3x earnings and 15.3x sales — premiums of roughly 53% and 117% over peer medians — pricing in sustained hyper-growth with little room for error.
Persistent insider net selling of $256.4M over 24 months and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $890.67 suggest the market is already questioning how much upside remains, keeping this a hold pending evidence that FY2027 can sustain the trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 57.3x earnings versus a peer median of 37.4x, any deceleration in revenue growth from the 34.1% FY2026 pace could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- HDD cycle risk. Storage demand is historically cyclical; the AI-driven nearline surge could normalize, reversing the margin expansion from 23.5% (FY2024) to 45.6% (FY2026).
- Insider distribution. Insiders have net sold $256.4M over 24 months across 690 dispositions, including the EVP & Chief Commercial Officer selling at ~$920 on 2026-08-13.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $832.56 is below its 50-day MA of $890.67 despite a positive MACD histogram of 8.09, suggesting distribution pressure at elevated levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 (period ended 2026-07-03) and derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2026 · FMP fundamentals and derived_metrics FY2026 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on STX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All STX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $14.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $9.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $7.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $7.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $5.0B | 0.3% of fund |
157 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 1196 Form 4 filings, net −$505.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 48 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STX
Orin answers questions about STX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 62.3× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.3× | 16.5× | — |
| P/S | 16.66× | 1.97× | — |
| P/B | 91.6× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.59σ from its own mean).
23.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1130
$875 – $1600 · +24% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $203B | 62.3× | 48.3× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $45B | 27.2× | 19.2× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $91B | — | 350.6× | 79.5% | 4.5% | 5% |
| EAElectronic Arts Inc. | $53B | 48.4× | 29.8× | 79.9% | 13.8% | 17% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $66B | 81.4× | 63.9× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $76B | 35.4× | 22.2× | 50.0% | 17.4% | 86% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $58B | 19.5× | 13.4× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $27B | 11.4× | 8.6× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $155B | 16.6× | 17.8× | 48.9% | 72.9% | 119% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 98.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.