Constellation Brands, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Constellation Brands trades at a P/E of 10.39x — roughly 39% below the peer median of 17.11x — and an EV/EBITDA of 6.31x versus the peer median of 12.72x, as the fundamental trajectory stabilizes after FY2026's revenue decline.
Q2 FY2027 (ended 31 Aug) returned to growth with revenue up 6.1% YoY to $2.633B and $3.74 actual EPS beating the $3.62 estimate, while management maintained FY2027 EPS guidance midpoint at $11.55. Strong free cash flow of $1.794B (19.6% FCF margin) supports continued debt reduction from $12.1B to $11.2B year-over-year, and an RSI of 37.0 signals oversold conditions.
What could go wrong
- Flagship beer demand softening. Barron's (7 Oct) reports Constellation signals weak demand for two flagship beer brands, despite Q2 beer sales rising 5% per WSJ.
- FY2026 revenue contraction. FY2026 revenue fell 10.5% YoY to $9.139B from $10.2B in FY2025, and Q1 FY2027 still declined 3.3% YoY, making the Q2 rebound fragile.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $115.67 trades well below both the 50-day MA of $126.41 and the 200-day MA of $142.98, reflecting sustained downtrend pressure.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $11.2B against stockholders' equity of $8.08B as of FY2026 leaves a balance sheet that constrains flexibility if beer trends deteriorate further.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 6 Oct · Q2 FY27 results and earnings vs estimates · news, 6 Oct · FY26 fundamentals. Orin's read on STZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 5.3% over twelve months, from $137.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $130.63 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $166.68 on 4 Feb 2026; the last close is 21.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.8M, on 8 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All STZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $944.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $639.9M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $531.0M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $529.3M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $481.1M | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $430.8M | 0.6% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STZ
Orin answers questions about STZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (21.4×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7×below usual | 21.4× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 2.40×below usual | 4.56× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0×below usual | 48.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×below usual | 4.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $150 (from $122 to $182) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$150
$122 – $182 · +15% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (BF-B 18.5×, TAP 8.9×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $22B | 11.7× | 10.0× | 52.7% | 20.9% | 24% |
| BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation | $13B | 18.5× | 14.1× | 60.7% | 18.4% | 18% |
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $8B | 8.9× | 6.7× | 35.1% | 8.1% | 9% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $210 a share — 60% above the $130.96 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $210 | 60% above $130.96 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.