Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ
STZ is a contrarian buy at $116.57 with RSI at 28.2 and P/E of 11.1x — roughly 35% below the peer median of 17.1x — as the fundamental trajectory improves. Revenue decline has decelerated sharply from -15.0% YoY in Q2 FY2026 to -3.3% in Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended 2026-05-31), FY2026 profitability recovered to $1.69B net income (EPS $9.61) from an $81M loss in FY2025, and management reaffirmed its full-year outlook on September 13, 2026 while redeeming $600M of 4.350% Senior Notes due 2027.
The stock is deeply oversold and cheap, with smart money sentiment marginally positive at 0.0079 as of 2026-06-30 and 63 funds holding positions, up from 55 a year earlier.
What could go wrong
- Revenue still declining. Despite deceleration, top-line growth remains negative at -3.3% in the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ended 2026-05-31); a return to positive growth is not yet confirmed.
- Technical downtrend. Stock trades at $116.57, well below both the 50-day MA ($129.72) and 200-day MA ($144.37), with MACD histogram negative at -0.72.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 81,053,029 shares over 24 months with no open-market cluster buy; recent July 2026 transactions are RSU grants, not discretionary purchases.
- Elevated debt load. Total debt stands at $11.2B as of FY2026 (ended 2026-02-28), though the announced $600M note redemption signals active deleveraging.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 FY2026 and Q1 FY2027 revenue_yoy_pct · fundamentals FY2026 and FY2025 · peer_relative pe and pe_vs_median_pct · technicals as of 2026-09-23. Orin's read on STZ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All STZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $944.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $639.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $531.0M | 0.1% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings, net $65.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about STZ
Orin answers questions about STZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.9× | — | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1× | 47.8× | — |
| P/S | 2.15× | 4.56× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 4.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.03σ from its own mean).
-0.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$157
$122 – $185 · +37% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $20B | 10.9× | 9.1× | 52.6% | 20.1% | 23% |
| BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation | $12B | 16.9× | 13.4× | 60.7% | 18.4% | 18% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.4× | 14.9× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.6× | 20.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.9× | 12.7× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.9× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $19B | — | 10.5× | 33.4% | -4.9% | -11% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.6× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 43.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-59 | $141.03 · −142% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $264 | $141.03 · +87% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.