Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Stanley Black & Decker's turnaround is gaining traction: Q2 2026 revenue grew +0.4% YoY to $3.96B — the first positive growth print in recent quarters — with gross profit reaching $1.31B, and the company has beaten EPS estimates by roughly 30% in each of the last two quarters (actual $1.57 vs. estimated $1.21 in Q2; actual $0.80 vs. estimated $0.61 in Q1).
The stock has pulled back to $91.76 from August levels near $103 (per insider sale prices), bringing PE to 22.49x — roughly in line with the peer median of 22.13x — while trading at just 0.91x sales versus a peer median of 2.13x, a 57% discount, and EV/EBITDA of 12.78x versus 17.33x peer median. With total debt reduced from $7.6B (FY2022) to $6.0B (FY2025), smart money scores improving from 0.00 to 0.03 as of Q2 2026, and net insider buying of $29.1M over 24 months, the risk/reward at this pullback level is attractive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth still fragile. FY2025 revenue contracted 1.5% to $15.13B — a fourth consecutive year of decline — and Q2 2026's +0.4% YoY growth is marginal; a return to contraction would undermine the turnaround narrative.
- FCF compression. Free cash flow declined from $753M (FY2024) to $688M (FY2025), and a recent news article questioned whether the dividend payout is adequately funded by underlying cash flow.
- Operating margin deterioration. FY2025 operating margin compressed to 7.6% from 8.8% in FY2024, with operating income falling from $1.35B to $1.15B despite ongoing cost programs.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $91.76 is trading below its 50-day MA of $95.22 with a slightly negative MACD histogram of -0.09, suggesting near-term momentum has not yet stabilized.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · earnings vs estimates · technicals, 23 Sep · peer comparison. Orin's read on SWK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 37.8% over twelve months, from $72.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $99.32 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $104.00 on 11 Aug 2026; the last close is 4.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.6M, on 4 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SWK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $954.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $823.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $647.3M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $427.3M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $399.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $349.3M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $343.5M | 1.0% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 274 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$918K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SWK
Orin answers questions about SWK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of the 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 28.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.7×below usual | 28.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.14×above usual | 0.79× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5×below usual | 15.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×above usual | 1.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $95.40 (from $84 to $105) — 4% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$95.40
$84 – $105 · −4% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $17B | 20.7× | 12.5× | 33.8% | 5.5% | 9% |
| EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp. | $2B | 19.9× | 12.6× | 49.0% | 14.7% | 22% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | $1B | 33.5× | 8.5× | 45.8% | 2.6% | 3% |
| KMTKennametal Inc. | $2B | 3.0× | 2.8× | 50.5% | 22.5% | 39% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.8× | 17.7× | 35.5% | 12.4% | 38% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $18B | 18.3× | 12.4× | 51.2% | 20.0% | 17% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.7× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $36 a share — 64% below the $99.37 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $36 | 64% below $99.37 |
| Levered | $148 | 49% above $99.37 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.