Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK
Stanley Black & Decker's turnaround is gaining traction: Q2 2026 revenue grew +0.4% YoY to $3.96B — the first positive growth print in recent quarters — with gross profit reaching $1.31B, and the company has beaten EPS estimates by roughly 30% in each of the last two quarters (actual $1.57 vs. estimated $1.21 in Q2; actual $0.80 vs. estimated $0.61 in Q1). The stock has pulled back to $91.76 from August levels near $103 (per insider sale prices), bringing PE to 22.49x — roughly in line with the peer median of 22.13x — while trading at just 0.91x sales versus a peer median of 2.13x, a 57% discount, and EV/EBITDA of 12.78x versus 17.33x peer median.
With total debt reduced from $7.6B (FY2022) to $6.0B (FY2025), smart money scores improving from 0.0044 to 0.0258 as of Q2 2026, and net insider buying of $29.1M over 24 months, the risk/reward at this pullback level is attractive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth still fragile. FY2025 revenue contracted 1.5% to $15.13B — a fourth consecutive year of decline — and Q2 2026's +0.4% YoY growth is marginal; a return to contraction would undermine the turnaround narrative.
- FCF compression. Free cash flow declined from $753M (FY2024) to $688M (FY2025), and a recent news article questioned whether the dividend payout is adequately funded by underlying cash flow.
- Operating margin deterioration. FY2025 operating margin compressed to 7.62% from 8.78% in FY2024, with operating income falling from $1.35B to $1.15B despite ongoing cost programs.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $91.76 is trading below its 50-day MA of $95.22 with a slightly negative MACD histogram of -0.09, suggesting near-term momentum has not yet stabilized.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 FY2026 · earnings_surprises · technicals as of 2026-09-23 · peer_relative. Orin's read on SWK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SWK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $954.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $823.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $647.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $427.3M | 0.1% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 274 Form 4 filings, net $29.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SWK
Orin answers questions about SWK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.1× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6× | 15.6× | — |
| P/S | 0.89× | 0.79× | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.64σ from its own mean).
7.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$92
$84 – $96 · +1% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $14B | 22.1× | 12.6× | 31.7% | 4.1% | 7% |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 29.9× | 22.9× | 30.3% | 8.3% | 22% |
| CNMCore & Main, Inc. | $8B | 17.1× | 10.7× | 27.0% | 6.0% | 23% |
| DCIDonaldson Company, Inc. | $10B | 22.1× | 17.9× | 34.6% | 11.7% | 28% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $10B | 26.4× | 15.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.4× | 17.4× | 36.0% | 12.4% | 37% |
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | — | 22.3× | 26.2% | -6.8% | -17% |
| POOLPool Corporation | $6B | 14.8× | 12.5× | 29.6% | 7.4% | 32% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 8.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $41 | $78.78 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $167 | $78.78 · +111% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.