Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Skyworks remains a hold ahead of the imminent Qorvo merger close (expected on or about October 5, 2026 per regulatory clearance news), with the stock having already surged roughly 33% in a month to $85.03 as of 2 Oct, pricing in much of the deal's promise.
Standalone fundamentals are still deteriorating—Q3 FY2026 revenue of $934.8M (down 3.1% YoY) and GAAP EPS of just $0.22 reflect an operating margin that has compressed from 27.8% in FY22 to 12.2% in FY25—while the stock trades at 45.4x earnings, roughly in line with the peer median of 46.5x despite materially weaker growth. Consistent positive earnings surprises and a deep discount on EV/EBITDA (16.5 vs. peer median 34.8) offer support, but with smart money turning slightly negative (-0.01 as of 30 Jun) and a negative MACD histogram signaling fading momentum, the risk-reward is balanced pending Qorvo integration clarity.
What could go wrong
- Integration execution risk. The Qorvo merger is expected to close on or about October 5, 2026; combining two RF semiconductor businesses carries significant operational and cultural integration risk that could disrupt revenue and margins.
- Valuation stretched on weak fundamentals. At a PE of 45.38 and a stock price of $85.03 (as of 2 Oct), the market prices in meaningful synergy realization despite FY2025 operating margin having compressed to 12.2% from 27.8% in FY2022.
- Continued revenue decline. Revenue has declined for three consecutive fiscal years from $5.49B in FY2022 to $4.09B in FY2025, and Q3 FY2026 revenue of $934.8M was still down 3.1% YoY.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider transactions show net disposed value of approximately -$3.96M, with the most recent activity (September 2026) involving the CFO selling shares acquired via option exercise.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: GlobeNewsWire 30 Sep · Q3 FY26 results · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 2 Oct. Orin's read on SWKS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 12.7% over twelve months, from $75.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $85.48 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $91.45 on 23 Sep 2026; the last close is 6.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.4M, on 5 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SWKS filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 19 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 7 Oct | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. completed exchange offers and consent solicitations on October 7, 2026, triggering Items 1.01, 2.03, and 9.01. | read |
| 13G | 7 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 6 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 5 Oct | Skyworks Solutions completed its acquisition of Qorvo on October 5, 2026, triggering Form 8-K Items 2.01, 5.02, and 8.01. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Sep | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) filed an 8-K on September 30, 2026, to attach a press release regarding its proposed merger with Qorvo, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 2 Sep | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. extended the expiration date for its exchange offers of Qorvo, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 14 Aug | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $793.9M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $665.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $599.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $588.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $407.1M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $367.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $344.5M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $297.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $242.5M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 137 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$765K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SWKS
Orin answers questions about SWKS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 44.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.1×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 44.1×above usual | 18.1× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 3.20×near usual | 3.29× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1×above usual | 11.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.2×below usual | 2.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $80.64 (from $61 to $107) — 6% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$80.64
$61 – $107 · −6% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 44.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc. | $13B | 44.1× | 16.1× | 40.7% | 7.2% | 5% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $6B | 420× | 62.2× | 47.2% | 1.5% | 1% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 43.1× | 32.5× | 58.0% | 25.3% | 22% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | $7B | lost money | 207× | 58.0% | −4.4% | −6% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $10B | 26.2× | 13.2× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
| SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 59.9% | −4.6% | −4% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- SLAB: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- MXL, SLAB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 44.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now44.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $77 a share — 10% below the $85.56 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $77 | 10% below $85.56 |
| Levered | $88 | 3% above $85.56 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.