Synchrony Financial SYF
Synchrony Financial trades at a deep valuation discount — 7.9x trailing earnings versus a 14.0x peer median and 5.0x EV/EBITDA versus 17.6x — while FY2025 EPS grew 8.65% to $9.29 and operating margin expanded to 24.17% from 21.93% the prior year. The OpenAI partnership announced August 17, 2026 adds a credible agentic-commerce growth catalyst, and smart money positioning is modestly positive at 0.0317 as of Q2 2026 with fund count rising to 62.
The stock sits above both its 50-day ($76.61) and 200-day ($74.98) moving averages, though a slightly negative MACD histogram and neutral RSI of 49.3 suggest near-term momentum has cooled since the post-earnings 9.4% rally.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 7.91% YoY to $19.116B from $20.759B, a contraction that could signal partner portfolio losses or reduced receivables growth.
- Consumer credit deterioration. Recent news highlights credit card balances 90+ days late have nearly doubled since 2022, directly relevant to Synchrony's private-label card portfolio.
- Net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 66,208 shares across 280 transactions, with recent activity limited to small dividend-equivalent-unit acquisitions rather than open-market buys.
- MACD rolling over. MACD histogram turned negative at -0.25 with RSI at 49.3, indicating the post-earnings rally momentum is fading near $78.05.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics. Orin's read on SYF; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All SYF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $767.6M | 0.1% of fund |
93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 280 Form 4 filings, net $48K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SYF
Orin answers questions about SYF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2× | 7.2× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5× | 5.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.21× | 1.24× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.27σ from its own mean).
-25.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$88
$80 – $104 · +24% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYFSynchrony Financial | $23B | 7.2× | 4.5× | 52.3% | 18.6% | 21% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $47B | 17.5× | 18.7× | 68.5% | 15.8% | 8% |
| MSMorgan Stanley | $313B | 16.0× | 23.1× | 59.7% | 16.0% | 18% |
| MTBM&T Bank Corporation | $32B | 11.6× | 11.0× | 76.0% | 24.4% | 11% |
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 10.7× | 17.0× | 64.0% | 19.1% | 9% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 48.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $85 | $70.71 · +20% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $182 | $70.71 · +157% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.