Orin
SYKNYSE·Medical - Devices

Stryker Corporation SYK

Market cap $104.5BP/E 28.1× trailingGross margin 65.2%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close
$272.61
−0.79 (−0.29%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $267.00 – $392.55
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Stryker delivered 11.2% revenue growth to $25.1B in FY2025 with expanding gross margins (64.0% vs 61.9% in FY2024), but operating income fell to $4.89B from $5.06B as operating margin compressed from 22.4% to 19.5% — a deterioration that sits uncomfortably alongside a 34.1x trailing PE representing a 38.7% premium to the peer median of 24.6x. Net insider selling of $543M over 24 months and a slightly negative smart-money score of -0.0195 as of Q2 2026 reinforce caution, while the stock's $331.37 close below its 200-day MA of $340.92 signals unfinished technical repair.

Strong FCF of $4.28B and improving Q2 momentum per recent news support the franchise, but demonstrated operating-margin recovery is needed to justify the premium multiple.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating margin fell to 19.5% from 22.4% in FY2024, with operating income declining to $4.89B from $5.06B despite 11.2% revenue growth — if this continues into 2026, the premium valuation becomes harder to defend.
  • Valuation premium. At 34.1x PE, SYK trades at a 38.7% premium to the peer median of 24.6x and 34.1% above the median EV/EBITDA of 16.5x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 2.1M shares for $543M across 103 dispositions vs 55 acquisitions, with no cluster buying detected.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $16.4B in FY2025 from $14.1B in FY2024, raising interest burden risk if rates remain elevated or if acquisition integration falters.

What would change my mind

Operating margin recovery. FY2026 quarterly operating margin reclaims above 21%, confirming the FY2025 compression was transitorybullish
Smart-money inflection. Smart-money score turns positive in the next 13F filing cycle, reversing the current -0.0195 readingbullish
Margin guidance cut. Management lowers full-year operating margin guidance or reports further operating income decline on rising revenuebearish
Break below technical support. Stock closes below the 50-day MA of $325.14 on elevated volume, confirming downtrend accelerationbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2024 vs FY2025 · peer_relative composite, as of latest available data · insider summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on SYK; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$7.1B0.2% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$5.7B0.3% of fund
State Street$4.9B0.1% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$3.8B0.4% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.6B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$2.6B0.4% of fund

122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 179 Form 4 filings, net −$661.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 30 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E28.1×41.4×26.4×
EV/EBITDA18.6×25.9×
P/S4.06×5.55×
P/B4.4×6.1×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.82σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

52 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$372

$315$420 · +37% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 37 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 24.2× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
SYKStryker Corporation$105B28.1×18.6×65.2%14.4%16%
AMGNAmgen Inc.$219B25.0×15.9×72.7%22.9%89%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation$66B18.0×13.8×71.2%17.5%15%
DHRDanaher Corporation$156B39.2×24.9×58.5%15.9%8%
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.$188B331.4×79.6%-10.6%-16%
HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.$94B14.6×9.0×28.4%8.8%-113%
MCKMcKesson Corporation$103B23.5×15.3×3.6%1.1%-194%
MDTMedtronic plc$114B21.8×14.9×66.7%13.9%11%
PFEPfizer Inc.$161B37.2×17.6×71.3%6.8%5%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated$131B29.8×23.3×86.0%34.9%23%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 69.4×FY25 41.4×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$331$309.99 · +7%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$356$309.99 · +15%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $272.61
52-week range$267 – $393
Analyst targets$315 – $420
Standard DCF$331 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $309.99
Levered DCF$356 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $309.99
At own 5y-median P/E (41×)$403
At 5y P/E range (36–51×)$349 – $492
At sector P/E (26×)$257

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.