Synaptics Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hold. onsemi's revised all-cash acquisition of Synaptics at $123.00 per share (announced October 2, 2026) caps near-term upside with the stock at $117.18 as of October 16, 2026, leaving a ~5% arbitrage spread.
The standalone fundamentals remain weak: FY2026 (ended June 27, 2026) delivered 11.4% revenue growth to $1.197B but a third consecutive year of negative operating income (-$67.1M) and a $490.8M GAAP net loss, with gross margin compressed to 44.7%. Persistent insider selling (net -$8.4M over 24 months through September 2026) and a near-zero smart money score (-0.00 as of Q2 2026) offer no signal that the standalone business is inflecting. The call balances limited deal-spread upside against deal-break risk, as multiple law firms have launched investigations into whether shareholders are receiving fair value.
What could go wrong
- Deal break or delay. Multiple law firms (Halper Sadeh, M&A Class Action Firm) are investigating whether the $123.00/share cash price is fair; shareholder litigation or regulatory hurdles could delay or derail closure, collapsing the spread.
- Deteriorating standalone fundamentals. Three consecutive years of negative operating income (FY2024 -$101.6M, FY2025 -$94.1M, FY2026 -$67.1M) and a FY2026 net loss of $490.8M mean the standalone business has limited intrinsic support if the deal fails.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months through September 2026, insiders net sold 86,640 shares for $8.43M with only 1 acquisition transaction versus 64 dispositions, signaling limited insider confidence.
- Competing bid uncertainty. The original all-stock deal was revised to all-cash after an unsolicited competing proposal; further bid complications could introduce volatility around deal terms.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news · technicals, 16 Oct · FY26 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on SYNA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 62.1% over twelve months, from $72.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $118.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $147.57 on 26 May 2026; the last close is 20.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.7M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SYNA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Ameriprise Financial | $929.5M | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $619.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $325.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $262.7M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $227.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $208.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $133.7M | 0.0% |
| The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company | $133.7M | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $68.5M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $61.6M | 0.0% |
63 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 191 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 26 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SYNA
Orin answers questions about SYNA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 3.86× its yearly sales — above its usual level (2.89×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 27.6× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 3.86×above usual | 2.89× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 103× | — | — |
| P/B | 4.9×above usual | 2.6× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 9.8× to 73.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $129 (from $105 to $170) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$129
$105 – $170 · +10% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 4 companies it is compared to made a profit (CRUS 13.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYNASynaptics Incorporated | $5B | lost money | 103× | 46.0% | −40.7% | −43% |
| AMBAAmbarella, Inc. | $3B | lost money | n/m | 58.3% | −13.5% | −9% |
| CEVACEVA, Inc. | $883M | lost money | n/m | 87.4% | −9.5% | −3% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | $6B | 13.5× | 9.1× | 53.1% | 20.2% | 19% |
| INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc. | $295M | lost money | n/m | 26.7% | −61.0% | −47% |
- AMBA, CEVA, INDI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AMBA, CEVA, INDI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $11 a share — 91% below the $118.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $11 | 91% below $118.08 |
| Levered | $19 | 84% below $118.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.