Orin
SYYNYSE·Food Distribution

Sysco Corporation SYY

Market cap $37.2BP/E 21.3× trailingGross margin 18.5%Reports Tue 3 Nov, before the open
$77.86
−0.33 (−0.42%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $68.19 – $91.85
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Sysco remains a hold as FY2026 results (period ended 2026-06-27) show revenue growing 3.9% to $84.6B but net income falling for a second consecutive year — down 3.9% to $1.76B with EPS at $3.66 — as operating margin compressed to 3.66% from 3.80%. The stock trades at a discount to peers (22.5x P/E vs 28.3x median; 13.7x EV/EBITDA vs 15.2x) and free cash flow improved to $1.94B, while smart money scores turned modestly positive at 0.061 as of Q2 2026, but the planned $29B Jetro/Restaurant Depot acquisition layered on top of $14.97B in existing debt against just $2.67B in equity creates substantial execution and leverage risk that offsets the attractive valuation and FY2027 guidance for 9–11% adjusted EPS growth.

What could go wrong

  • Acquisition leverage risk. The planned $29B Jetro/Restaurant Depot acquisition, on top of existing total debt of $14.97B against $2.67B equity as of FY2026, could materially strain the balance sheet and delay deleveraging.
  • Persistent margin compression. Operating margin has declined for two consecutive years from 4.06% in FY2024 to 3.66% in FY2026, and net margin fell to 2.08%, eroding profitability despite top-line growth.
  • Earnings trajectory. Net income has declined two years in a row (-6.5% in FY2025, -3.9% in FY2026) and EPS fell 1.9% to $3.66, raising questions about whether AI-driven efficiency initiatives can reverse the trend.
  • Macro and foodservice demand. As a foodservice distributor, Sysco is exposed to discretionary away-from-home dining trends; any slowdown in restaurant traffic could pressure volumes and complicate integration of the Jetro acquisition.

What would change my mind

FY2027 margin expansion. Operating margin re-expands above 3.8% in the first half of FY2027, confirming cost initiatives are gaining tractionbullish
Acquisition financing clarity. Sysco details financing for the $29B Jetro acquisition with manageable leverage targets and a credible deleveraging pathbullish
Further earnings deterioration. Adjusted EPS growth fails to materialize toward the guided 9–11% range in FY2027, or net income declines for a third consecutive yearbearish
Debt downgrade. Credit rating agencies downgrade Sysco's debt citing elevated leverage from the Jetro acquisitionbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-06-27 · derived_metrics, FY2026 and FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal years 2026 and 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-06-27. Orin's read on SYY; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.6B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.3B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.3B0.1% of fund
Harris Associates L P$1.4B1.8% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.1B0.1% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$855.8M0.1% of fund

120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings, net $19.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Defensive
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E21.3×21.3×38.3×
EV/EBITDA13.2×13.0×—
P/S0.44×0.49×—
P/B14.1×20.0×—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.57σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

30 firms · 2026-08-06
Consensus target

$86

$84 – $90 · +10% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 18 buy or overweight
  • 9 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.8× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
SYYSysco Corporation$37B21.3×13.2×18.5%2.1%75%
ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.$34B190.7×47.3×75.5%1.2%5%
HSYThe Hershey Company$34B22.6×14.8×38.1%12.2%32%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.$42B31.1×20.6×49.4%7.1%6%
KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation$32B16.5×12.4×36.7%11.8%123%
KRThe Kroger Co.$36B31.5×10.9×23.1%0.7%17%
KVUEKenvue Inc.$34B20.2×13.0×58.2%10.8%16%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 20.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 31.1×FY26 22.6×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Defensive
FY14 22.9×FY26 39.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$125$78.81 · +59%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$63$78.81 · −20%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $77.86
52-week range$68 – $92
Analyst targets$84 – $90
Standard DCF$125 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $78.81
Levered DCF$63 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $78.81
At own 5y-median P/E (21×)$78
At 5y P/E range (18–75×)$67 – $274
At sector P/E (38×)$140

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.