Sysco Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Sysco's FY2026 results (period ended 27 Jun) show revenue growing 3.9% to $84.55B but operating margin compressing to 3.7% from 3.8% and net income declining 3.9% to $1.757B — a third consecutive year of margin erosion.
The just-closed $14.65B and €1.0B notes offerings dramatically expand an already heavy leverage profile ($14.97B total debt against $2.67B equity at fiscal year-end 2026), while the stock at $78.14 trades below both its 50-day ($81.10) and 200-day ($79.91) moving averages. The 21.3x P/E at a 21% discount to the peer median and improved free cash flow of $1.94B offer valuation support, but persistent earnings declines, rising leverage, and net insider selling of 103,823 shares over 24 months argue against adding here.
What could go wrong
- Leverage surge. The October 2026 closing of $14.65B and €1.0B notes offerings on top of $14.97B existing total debt (as of FY2026 ended 27 Jun) against only $2.67B in stockholders' equity creates an extremely elevated leverage profile that could pressure credit metrics and interest coverage.
- Persistent margin compression. Operating margin has declined for three straight fiscal years — from 4.1% (FY2024) to 3.8% (FY2025) to 3.7% (FY2026) — with net margin also compressing to 2.1% from 2.5% over the same period.
- Insider dispositions. Over the trailing 24 months insiders have net sold 103,823 shares for a net value of approximately $8.49M, with only 1 acquisition transaction against 18 dispositions; recent September 2026 acquisitions were small board-related grants, not open-market buys.
- Foodservice demand cyclicality. As a pure-play foodservice distributor, Sysco's volume is sensitive to away-from-home dining trends and macro conditions; any slowdown in restaurant traffic would compound margin pressure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · GlobeNewsWire press release, 6 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on SYY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.5% over twelve months, from $78.00 on 27 Oct 2025 to $82.30 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $91.16 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 9.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.6M, on 30 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All SYY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $1.4B | 1.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $855.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $615.3M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $594.7M | 0.1% |
| D. E. Shaw | $505.4M | 0.2% |
123 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 178 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SYY
Orin answers questions about SYY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.3×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.4×above usual | 21.3× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.48×near usual | 0.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0×near usual | 12.8× | — |
| P/B | 14.8×below usual | 19.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $86.80 (from $84 to $91) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$86.80
$84 – $91 · +5% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYYSysco Corporation | $40B | 22.4× | 13.0× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $39B | 212× | 27.3× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $47B | 35.1× | 20.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $39B | 35.6× | 11.3× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $37B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $94 a share — 14% above the $82.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $94 | 14% above $82.08 |
| Levered | $58 | 29% below $82.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.