AT&T Inc. T
AT&T's FY2025 turnaround is genuine — EPS doubled to $3.04 from $1.49, revenue grew 2.71% to $125.6B, and free cash flow reached $19.4B — while the stock trades at 8.58x earnings and 6.02x EV/EBITDA, roughly 27–34% below peer medians. However, after rallying to $26.01 (above both the 50-day MA of $23.17 and 200-day MA of $25.13), RSI has reached 68.9 and smart-money flows turned slightly negative at -0.0972 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 67 to 64, suggesting much of the recovery is now priced in.
The hold reflects an intact fundamental story but an extended near-term technical setup paired with mixed institutional and insider signals — net insider selling of $104.2M over 24 months — making risk/reward balanced at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Debt load. Total debt rose to $174B in FY2025 from $140.9B in FY2024, a $33B single-year increase; while operating cash flow of $40.3B services it, rising rates or refinancing pressure could constrain capital returns.
- Smart-money outflows. Smart-money score turned negative at -0.0972 as of 2026-06-30 with fund count falling from 67 to 64, reversing the positive trend seen in early 2025 when the score was +0.1936.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 68.9 and the stock trading 12% above its 50-day MA ($23.17) leave little room for upside before overbought conditions trigger profit-taking.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold approximately 1.38M shares worth $104.2M, with recent July 2026 acquisitions being small deferred-unit grants rather than meaningful open-market buys.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on T; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All T filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $6.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
134 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 359 Form 4 filings, net −$104.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about T
Orin answers questions about T from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4× | — | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9× | 6.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.36× | 1.09× | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.37σ from its own mean).
-3.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $19.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$27
$20 – $30 · +4% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAT&T Inc. | $174B | 8.4× | 5.9× | 59.7% | 16.9% | 19% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $16B | 3.0× | 5.6× | 56.6% | 9.1% | 30% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $80B | 7.3× | 4.8× | 69.4% | 9.0% | 12% |
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $180B | 21.3× | 9.5× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $178B | 17.3× | 10.3× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $194B | 12.1× | 7.9× | 59.1% | 11.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 31.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $287 | $23.14 · +1141% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $168 | $23.14 · +624% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.