AT&T Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AT&T trades at 7.74x earnings — roughly 17.9% below the peer median of 9.43x — and 5.69x EV/EBITDA (12.1% below median), a discount that understates a sharply improving earnings profile: FY2025 EPS nearly doubled to $3.04 on 2.7% revenue growth to $125.6B, with $19.4B in free cash flow at a 15.5% FCF margin and $40.3B in operating cash flow.
The stock is technically oversold at $23.42 with RSI at 42.4 and price below both the 50-day ($24.91) and 200-day ($25.09) moving averages, while the eight-quarter EPS-beat streak continued with Q3 actual EPS of $0.65 versus a $0.602 estimate. The primary drag is total debt rising to $174B from $141B year-over-year, and smart-money interest remains low at 0.02 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- Leverage build. Total debt rose to $174B in FY2025 from $141B in FY2024; rising rates or any FCF erosion would pressure deleveraging capacity.
- Institutional disinterest. Smart-money score is just 0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun, down from 0.07 in Q1 2025, with fund count declining to 67 from 68.
- No insider conviction. Zero open-market insider acquisitions over the trailing 24 months across 368 transactions; recent activity is RSU vesting and option exercises, not discretionary buying.
- Revenue multiple elevated. PS ratio of 1.26x sits 28.5% above the peer median of 0.98x, limiting upside if revenue growth decelerates from the 2.3% Q2 2026 pace.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 20 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 20 Oct. Orin's read on T; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.0% over twelve months, from $25.53 on 27 Oct 2025 to $20.94 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $29.10 on 27 Mar 2026; the last close is 28.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 187.3M, on 22 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All T filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $11.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.4B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $6.9B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.7B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.6B | 0.3% |
137 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 369 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$41K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about T
Orin answers questions about T from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 8.3×); the typical Communication Services company on the NYSE is at 16.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.3×above usual | 8.3× | 16.9× |
| P/S | 1.09×near usual | 1.09× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7×above usual | 6.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×near usual | 1.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $26.39 (from $20 to $33) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$26.39
$20 – $33 · +26% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 9.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAT&T Inc. | $141B | 11.3× | 6.7× | 59.7% | 10.1% | 12% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $14B | 2.7× | 5.2× | 46.0% | 9.1% | 30% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $77B | 6.9× | 4.7× | 69.8% | 9.2% | 12% |
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $158B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $183B | 11.2× | 7.5× | 59.1% | 11.8% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 16.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now16.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $211 a share — 910% above the $20.94 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $211 | 910% above $20.94 |
| Levered | $121 | 479% above $20.94 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.