Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP
Molson Coors remains a hold as FY2025 results were dominated by a -$2.34B operating loss and -$10.85 diluted EPS, yet the company still generated $1.07B in free cash flow and management reaffirmed 2026 guidance targeting $1.1B underlying FCF. Q2 2026 results beat estimates on pricing and cost savings, but volumes continue to decline and fresh Canada tariff threats add uncertainty to an already pressured cross-border business.
At $39.76 the stock trades below both its 50-day ($41.04) and 200-day ($44.20) moving averages with a near-zero smart money score of 0.0019, while the 0.70x price-to-sales ratio sits roughly in line with peers — not enough value to offset the operational and technical deterioration for a directional call.
What could go wrong
- Canada tariff escalation. Trump's latest Canada tariffs revived a trade dispute that has already battered one of the industry's biggest export markets, directly threatening TAP's cross-border revenue.
- Persistent volume decline. Q2 2026 constant-currency net sales revenue fell 3.6% year-over-year, with US beer demand and shipments remaining weak despite pricing and premiumization efforts.
- Impairment recurrence. FY2025 operating loss of -$2.34B versus +$1.75B in FY2024 reflects large charges; further brand or asset write-downs could continue to distort reported earnings.
- Institutional conviction waning. Smart money score declined from 0.0093 in Q4 2025 to 0.0019 as of Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 58 to 56 in the most recent quarter.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · Seeking Alpha article 2026-08-17 · Defense World article 2026-08-11. Orin's read on TAP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TAP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Aqr Capital Management | $432.8M | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $413.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $403.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $326.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $246.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $173.3M | 0.0% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 87 Form 4 filings, net $30.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TAP
Orin answers questions about TAP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 0.62× | 1.03× | — |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.12σ from its own mean).
-8.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$43
$41 – $46 · +16% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $7B | — | — | 36.2% | -20.8% | -23% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.2× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $44 | $41.06 · +8% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $159 | $41.06 · +288% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.