Molson Coors Beverage Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Molson Coors remains a hold as quarterly profitability has returned — Q1 and Q2 2026 generated EPS of $0.80 and $1.23 respectively, with Q2 2026 beating consensus — but revenue continues to contract, with Q2 2026 revenue of $3.10B down 3.3% YoY.
The stock has recovered to $40.20 as of 20 Oct, above its 50-day MA of $39.27 but still below the 200-day MA of $42.73, while the P/S of 0.68 sits at a 76% discount to the peer median of 2.88. FY2025 free cash flow of $1.07B and the non-cash nature of the Q3 2025 impairment that drove the $2.14B FY2025 net loss provide downside support, but sustained revenue stabilization is the missing ingredient before turning more constructive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. Q2 2026 revenue fell 3.3% YoY to $3.10B and FY2025 revenue declined 4.2% YoY; without volume stabilization the cheap valuation could remain a value trap.
- Margin pressure from tariffs and input costs. Industry commentary flags tariffs and softer consumption as risks to pricing power and margins, with FY2025 gross margin already compressed to 37.6% from 39.0% in FY2024.
- Near-term technical exhaustion. RSI at 64.6 as of 20 Oct suggests the rebound from prior lows may be extended, with the 200-day MA at $42.73 still overhead resistance.
- Dividend sustainability questions. With FY2025 net income of -$2.14B and total debt of $6.30B, the dividend (noted in recent press as ~5.3% yield) depends on continued strong free cash flow generation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · Q3 2025 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on TAP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 12.9% over twelve months, from $45.27 on 27 Oct 2025 to $39.45 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $54.38 on 12 Feb 2026; the last close is 27.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 49.9M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TAP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $473.4M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $432.8M | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $413.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $403.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $326.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $246.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $173.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $153.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $135.8M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $131.8M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 89 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $487K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TAP
Orin answers questions about TAP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 8.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 10.7×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9×below usual | 10.7× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.72×below usual | 1.03× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7×below usual | 7.9× | — |
| P/B | 0.8×below usual | 0.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $41.80 (from $36 to $46) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$41.80
$36 – $46 · +6% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 8.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (BF-B 18.5×, STZ 11.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $8B | 8.9× | 6.7× | 35.1% | 8.1% | 9% |
| BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation | $13B | 18.5× | 14.1× | 60.7% | 18.4% | 18% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $22B | 11.7× | 10.0× | 52.7% | 20.9% | 24% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 8.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now8.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $35 a share — 13% below the $39.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $35 | 13% below $39.52 |
| Levered | $131 | 232% above $39.52 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.