TransDigm Group Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
TransDigm remains a buy after its pullback to near 52-week lows (intraday $1,082.40 on 16 Sep, last close $1,107.99 on 9 Oct) despite accelerating fundamentals: Q3 2026 revenue grew 22.5% YoY to $2.74B with EPS of $9.39, and the company has beaten consensus EPS in four straight quarters (most recently $10.87 vs. $10.30 estimate).
The stock trades at 33.6x trailing PE and 18.4x EV/EBITDA — a 7% and 25% discount to peer medians of 36.2x and 24.3x respectively — while FY2025 operating margin expanded to 47.6% and FCF reached $1.82B. The recently closed $1.066B Prince & Izant acquisition extends the aftermarket portfolio, and rising defense demand (11% growth in Q3 2026) supports continued top-line momentum.
What could go wrong
- Leverage profile. Total debt of $30.03B against negative stockholders' equity of -$9.69B as of FY2025 leaves little margin for error if aerospace demand softens or rates rise.
- Technical downtrend. Stock trades below both MA50 ($1,162) and MA200 ($1,243) as of 9 Oct, with RSI at 46.3, indicating persistent selling pressure despite improving fundamentals.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net disposed 368,612 shares worth ~$490M; recent acquisitions on 18 Sep were small grant-related purchases, not meaningful open-market buying.
- Smart money fading. Smart money score declined from 0.16 (Q3 2025) to 0.05 (Q2 2026), though fund count rose from 59 to 72 over the same period.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on TDG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 16.6% over twelve months, from $1,354.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,130.23 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,450.00 on 16 Jan 2026; the last close is 22.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.5M, on 3 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TDG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.5B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $5.7B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.2B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Soroban Capital Partners | $1.2B | 2.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 742 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$495.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TDG
Orin answers questions about TDG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 41.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.3×below usual | 41.1× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 6.24×below usual | 7.60× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.4×below usual | 22.8× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,461 (from $1,200 to $1,745) — 29% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,461
$1,200 – $1,745 · +29% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 32.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 34.3× | 18.4× | 59.6% | 21.3% | n/m |
| ATROAstronics Corporation | $2B | 29.8× | 21.8× | 32.5% | 8.4% | 52% |
| GEGE Aerospace | $309B | 34.2× | 24.9× | 35.2% | 17.3% | 51% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $77B | 41.1× | 29.2× | 35.2% | 20.5% | 34% |
| MOG-AMoog Inc. | $11B | 29.7× | 19.8× | 27.9% | 8.7% | 18% |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $18B | 32.9× | 22.0× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
- TDG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $1,962 a share — 73% above the $1,132.91 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $1,962 | 73% above $1,132.91 |
| Levered | $1,053 | 7% below $1,132.91 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.