Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Teledyne is an accelerating compounder trading at a discount to peers on PE (30.4 vs 35.0 median) and EV/EBITDA (19.5 vs 26.3 median), with Q2 2026 revenue up 9.8% YoY to $1.66B and operating margin expanding to 18.8% in FY2025.
The stock has reclaimed both its 50-day MA ($621.57) and 200-day MA ($629.63) as of 20 Oct with a bullish MACD histogram of 2.51, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters by 1.8–8.5%. Defense contract momentum is strong — highlighted by the SDA infrared pixel milestone, counter-drone radar launch, and a $6M DHS radiation detection order — supporting continued top-line growth into 2027.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin contracted from 42.9% in FY2024 to 39.2% in FY2025, a 372bp decline that could eventually pressure operating margins if it persists.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders have net sold $21.35M in shares with zero open-market acquisitions, and August 2026 sales occurred near $680 — above the current $632.21 close.
- FCF margin erosion. FCF margin declined from 19.5% in FY2024 to 17.6% in FY2025 as capex rose from $83.7M to $117.3M, which could limit buyback or M&A flexibility.
- Leadership transition. Vice Chairman Jason VanWees is retiring effective February 2027, adding execution risk during a period of accelerating defense program ramp.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on TDY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 23.9% over twelve months, from $528.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $654.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $691.30 on 7 Aug 2026; the last close is 5.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.2M, on 22 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TDY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.8B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.1B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $877.6M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $657.5M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $550.9M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $434.5M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $406.9M | 0.0% |
94 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 84 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$21.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TDY
Orin answers questions about TDY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.7×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.9×above usual | 26.7× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 4.66×above usual | 3.83× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.3×above usual | 18.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.8×above usual | 2.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $704 (from $465 to $830) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$704
$465 – $830 · +8% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated | $30B | 29.9× | 19.3× | 38.5% | 15.8% | 9% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $56B | 35.8× | 24.0× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| DCODucommun Incorporated | $2B | 38.9× | 21.0× | 27.8% | 6.1% | 8% |
| FTVFortive Corporation | $19B | 35.8× | 18.3× | 63.2% | 12.4% | 9% |
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $57B | 46.3× | 30.8× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| MKSIMKS Inc. | $12B | 19.8× | 12.6× | 44.7% | 12.6% | 20% |
| NOVTNovanta Inc. | $6B | 93.9× | 33.8× | 42.5% | 6.0% | 5% |
| OSISOSI Systems, Inc. | $3B | 21.7× | 14.7× | 33.2% | 8.7% | 18% |
| VPGVishay Precision Group, Inc. | $507M | lost money | 27.8× | 38.7% | −0.9% | −1% |
- VPG: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $500 a share — 23% below the $649.25 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $500 | 23% below $649.25 |
| Levered | $505 | 22% below $649.25 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.