Orin
TELNYSE·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

TE Connectivity Ltd. TEL

Market cap $62.8BP/E 20.8× trailingGross margin 35.4%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$216.53
+2.86 (+1.34%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $190.27 – $252.56
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

TE Connectivity remains a hold as the operating story strengthens but headline earnings and balance sheet signals stay mixed. FY2025 (ended 2025-09-26) revenue grew 7.85% to $17.09B with operating margin expanding to 18.79% and operating income reaching $3.21B, yet net income fell 42.31% to $1.84B (EPS $6.16 vs $10.33) and total debt jumped to $6.55B from $4.96B, pointing to one-time below-the-line charges and possibly an acquisition that need clarification.

The stock trades at a 42% P/E discount (19.69x vs peer median 34.04x) and 44% EV/EBITDA discount (12.77x vs 22.97x) to peers, but as of 2026-08-28 it sits below both its 50-day ($205.55) and 200-day ($217.06) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram of -1.20, and insiders have been net sellers of $129.6M over 24 months. The risk/reward is balanced; awaiting confirmation of earnings normalization and debt stabilization before turning constructive.

What could go wrong

  • Earnings quality. FY2025 net income fell 42.31% to $1.84B despite operating income rising to $3.21B, suggesting material one-time charges that could recur or signal deeper issues.
  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt increased to $6.55B in FY2025 from $4.96B in FY2024, a meaningful jump that raises financial risk if not tied to value-accretive deployment.
  • Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-28, stock at $202.66 trades below both 50-day MA ($205.55) and 200-day MA ($217.06) with negative MACD histogram (-1.20), indicating downtrend momentum.
  • Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 533,198 shares worth $129.6M, with no cluster buys detected.

What would change my mind

Earnings normalization. Next quarterly report shows net income recovering toward operating income trajectory with EPS above $6.16 annualized run-rate and debt stabilizing or decliningbullish
Technical reclaim. Stock closes above 200-day MA at $217 with MACD histogram turning positivebullish
Margin compression. Operating margin falls below 18% or gross margin contracts below 34%, reversing the FY2025 improvementbearish
Smart money exodus. 13F fund count drops below 60 or smart money score turns negative in next filing periodbearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on TEL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Brasada Capital Management$4.9B0.9% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.8B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.4B0.2% of fund
State Street$2.8B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$1.6B0.3% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$1.5B0.2% of fund

109 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 181 Form 4 filings, net −$129.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.8×20.4×53.3×
EV/EBITDA13.4×13.6×—
P/S3.23×2.93×—
P/B4.7×3.8×—

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.05σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

29 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$247

$220 – $300 · +14% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 14 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 38.4× of 11 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
TELTE Connectivity Ltd.$62B20.8×13.4×35.4%15.8%23%
APHAmphenol Corporation$205B39.6×23.4×38.5%17.8%37%
BHEBenchmark Electronics, Inc.$3B55.5×20.4×10.2%1.9%5%
CLSCelestica Inc.$43B38.4×28.7×12.0%7.2%51%
FLEXFlex Ltd.$42B43.4×23.4×9.5%3.3%19%
FNFabrinet$14B30.2×25.1×12.0%10.2%21%
JBLJabil Inc.$33B38.4×16.5×9.2%2.6%62%
LFUSLittelfuse, Inc.$11B—38.4×39.3%-0.3%-0%
LYTSLSI Industries Inc.$769M30.2×28.4×25.1%3.3%8%
MEIMethode Electronics, Inc.$516M—11.5×19.3%-3.5%-5%
OSISOSI Systems, Inc.$3B21.8×18.1×33.2%8.7%18%
PLXSPlexus Corp.$7B37.8×28.1×10.0%4.0%12%
SANMSanmina Corporation$12B38.9×18.7×9.0%2.4%13%
VICRVicor Corporation$13B86.5×94.6×56.6%30.6%20%

The median is of the 11 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 12.7×FY25 35.0×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $216.53
52-week range$190 – $253
Analyst targets$220 – $300
At own 5y-median P/E (20×)$210
At 5y P/E range (15–35×)$150 – $360
At sector P/E (53×)$548

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.