TE Connectivity Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
TE Connectivity's fundamental momentum is strong — FY2026 quarterly revenue growth has accelerated from 21.7% YoY in Q1 to 13.8% in Q3 (ended 26 Jun) with consistent EPS upside surprises of 3.2%–9.1% across the last eight quarters — but the technical and flow pictures have deteriorated since the prior buy call.
As of 19 Oct the stock at $212.33 sits below its 200-day MA of $213.57 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.81, while persistent insider selling (net -732,058 shares worth -$148.3M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions) and a smart money score of just 0.04 as of Q2 2026 temper enthusiasm. With Q4/full-year results due October 28, the call is hold pending confirmation that revenue acceleration and margin recovery persist into the new fiscal year.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Over the 24-month window, insiders disposed a net 732,058 shares worth $148.3M with zero open-market acquisitions, including the Industrial Solutions president exercising options and selling 9,400 shares at $215 in June 2026.
- FY2025 earnings quality. FY2025 net income fell 42.3% YoY to $1.84B while total debt rose to $6.55B from $4.96B, suggesting one-time charges or acquisition-related costs that could recur.
- Valuation premium on sales. P/S of 3.21 is a 46.7% premium to the peer median of 2.19, limiting upside if revenue growth decelerates from the current double-digit pace.
- Technical deterioration. As of 19 Oct, the stock trades below its 200-day MA ($213.57) with a negative MACD histogram (-0.81) and RSI at 49.0, indicating loss of upward momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 26 Jun · earnings vs estimates · technicals, 19 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on TEL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.8% over twelve months, from $236.74 on 27 Oct 2025 to $225.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $249.00 on 5 Nov 2025; the last close is 9.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.8M, on 22 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.6B | 0.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.5B | 0.2% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.3B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $738.5M | 0.0% |
112 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 181 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$148.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TEL
Orin answers questions about TEL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.4×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.9×above usual | 20.4× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 3.41×above usual | 2.93× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1×near usual | 13.6× | — |
| P/B | 5.0×above usual | 3.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $251 (from $220 to $300) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$251
$220 – $300 · +12% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TELTE Connectivity Ltd. | $65B | 21.9× | 14.1× | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $193B | 37.2× | 22.4× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| BDCBelden Inc. | $4B | 17.3× | 10.6× | 36.5% | 8.5% | 19% |
| CTSCTS Corporation | $2B | 23.0× | 11.6× | 40.3% | 12.9% | 13% |
| LFUSLittelfuse, Inc. | $10B | lost money | 40.2× | 39.3% | −0.3% | 0% |
| MEIMethode Electronics, Inc. | $493M | lost money | 11.1× | 19.3% | −3.5% | −5% |
| STSensata Technologies Holding plc | $6B | 16.9× | 6.6× | 30.3% | 9.5% | 13% |
- LFUS, MEI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $160 a share — 26% below the $217.49 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $160 | 26% below $217.49 |
| Levered | $261 | 20% above $217.49 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.