Teradyne, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Teradyne's revenue acceleration is exceptional — Q1 and Q2 2026 posted 87% and 104% YoY growth respectively, with EPS beating estimates by 18–21% across the last four quarters — driven by surging AI/HPC test demand and a fifth straight quarter of robotics-segment growth near $100M.
However, the stock at $402.68 trades at 14.1x sales (91% above the peer median of 7.38) and 41.2x EV/EBITDA (99% above the peer median of 20.7), pricing in perfection even after a ~130% YTD run. FY2025 net margin actually contracted to 17.4% from 19.2% in FY2024, and persistent net insider selling of ~$14.5M over 24 months alongside a slightly negative smart-money score as of Q2 2026 tempers conviction. The AI-test product cycle (Titan HP, Magnum E2) and NVIDIA partnership are genuine catalysts, but the valuation premium leaves little margin for execution missteps.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 14.1x sales and 41.2x EV/EBITDA — roughly double peer medians — any deceleration in YoY revenue growth from the 87–104% rates seen in H1 2026 could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Margin erosion. FY2025 net margin declined to 17.4% from 19.2% in FY2024 despite 13.1% revenue growth, and operating margin at 21.7% remains well below the FY2021 peak of 32.4%, suggesting cost pressures or mix shift are drag.
- Insider distribution. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 46,207 shares for $14.5M, with 38 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited internal confidence at current levels.
- Cyclical semiconductor test demand. Teradyne's core semiconductor test business is historically cyclical; a downturn in AI/HPC capex or memory test orders could rapidly slow the hypergrowth currently embedded in the share price.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison, 9 Oct · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on TER; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 119% over twelve months, from $147.50 on 27 Oct 2025 to $323.68 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $483.84 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 33.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TER filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.2B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $3.2B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.3B | 0.3% |
| AQR Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.4% |
124 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 113 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TER
Orin answers questions about TER from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 44.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 36.9×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 44.2×above usual | 36.9× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 11.3×above usual | 7.10× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.1×above usual | 25.2× | — |
| P/B | 14.7×above usual | 7.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $462 (from $390 to $550) — 43% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$462
$390 – $550 · +43% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 44.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 72.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $51B | 44.2× | 33.1× | 59.2% | 25.8% | 38% |
| AEHRAehr Test Systems | $2B | lost money | n/m | 34.7% | −14.0% | −5% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $4B | 31.9× | 34.0× | 50.0% | 24.6% | 19% |
| COHUCohu, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 118× | 39.2% | −7.4% | −5% |
| FORMFormFactor, Inc. | $8B | 72.2× | 49.8× | 45.6% | 12.8% | 11% |
| INTTinTEST Corporation | $158M | 96.4× | 17.8× | 42.7% | 1.2% | 2% |
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $57B | 46.3× | 30.8× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $11B | 79.9× | 43.2× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
- AEHR, COHU: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AEHR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 44.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now44.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $45 a share — 86% below the $325.85 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $45 | 86% below $325.85 |
| Levered | $49 | 85% below $325.85 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.