Teradyne, Inc. TER
Teradyne's AI-driven semiconductor test recovery is genuine—FY2025 revenue grew 13.1% to $3.19B and smart money fund count rose from 58 to 67 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30—but the stock's run to $443 (46% above its 200-day MA of $303) has left valuations stretched at 15.5x sales, 155% above the peer median. Insider selling by the CEO (4,000 shares at $356.31 on 2026-07-15) and net insider disposition value of $13.1M over 24 months, combined with FY2025 EPS growth of just 4.8% lagging revenue growth of 13.1%, signal the easy money has been made.
Hold pending evidence that earnings momentum can justify the premium multiple.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/S of 15.5x is 155% above peer median of 6.08x; EV/EBITDA of 47.5x is 111% above peer median of 22.5x, leaving the stock vulnerable to any disappointment in growth.
- Insider selling. CEO Gregory Smith sold 4,000 shares at $356.31 on 2026-07-15; 24-month net insider transaction value is -$13.1M across 97 transactions.
- Margin pressure. Net margin declined from 19.23% in FY2024 to 17.37% in FY2025 despite 13.1% revenue growth, indicating operating leverage is not fully flowing through.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 64.7 and stock trading 46% above its 200-day MA of $303.32 as of 2026-08-17 increases pullback risk after a rapid advance.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · peer_relative composite, as of 2026-08-17 · insider transactions, SEC Form 4 filings · insider summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on TER; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TER filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 103 Form 4 filings, net −$17.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TER
Orin answers questions about TER from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 53.1× | 36.9× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.7× | 25.2× | — |
| P/S | 13.63× | 7.10× | — |
| P/B | 17.7× | 7.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.52σ from its own mean).
34.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$462
$390 – $550 · +21% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $61B | 53.1× | 41.7× | 59.3% | 25.8% | 38% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $62B | 166.1× | 184.7× | 75.1% | 30.7% | 25% |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $97B | 49.8× | 21.1× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $60B | 48.7× | 35.3× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $41B | 104.7× | 27.4× | 60.2% | 8.8% | 7% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $29B | 46.9× | 23.6× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $27B | 11.4× | 8.5× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $269B | 23.4× | 20.2× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $47B | 99.8× | 20.8× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| UMCUnited Microelectronics Corporation | $62B | 23.9× | 12.5× | 30.6% | 33.3% | 21% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $47 | $349.75 · −87% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $51 | $349.75 · −85% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.