Target Corporation TGT
Target trades at a discount to peers on every valuation metric — P/E of 16.85 versus a peer median of 22.33 and EV/EBITDA of 10.31 versus 13.67 — yet FY2025 fundamentals still show revenue declining 1.68% year-over-year with operating margin compressed to 4.88% from 5.22% in FY2024. The stock has rallied sharply to $163.18, well above both the 50-day ($144.21) and 200-day ($120.68) moving averages with an RSI of 63.5, while CEO Brian Cornell sold 50,000 shares at $163.56 on August 25, 2026, adding to the $37.9 million net insider disposition over the trailing 24 months.
Smart money has turned modestly positive at 0.053 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, but the combination of extended technicals, persistent insider selling, and still-declining margins keeps this a hold pending evidence that the turnaround narrative is translating into sustained margin recovery.
What could go wrong
- Margin deterioration continues. FY2025 operating margin of 4.88% is below FY2024's 5.22% and well below the 8.44% posted in FY2021, indicating the cost structure has not yet normalized despite the turnaround narrative.
- Insider selling acceleration. CEO Cornell sold 50,000 shares at $163.56 on Aug 25, 2026, and another 49,000 at $129.84 on May 27, 2026; multiple executives sold in August, with net insider dispositions totaling $37.9 million over 24 months.
- Revenue still declining. FY2025 revenue of $104.78 billion represents a 1.68% year-over-year decline, the third consecutive year of falling revenue, which challenges the turnaround story despite recent positive quarterly commentary.
- Brand controversy risk. A Halloween costume controversy reported on Aug 27, 2026 threatens brand trust at a time when the recovery narrative is still fragile.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-28 · insider transactions. Orin's read on TGT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TGT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $4.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
121 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 83 Form 4 filings, net −$37.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TGT
Orin answers questions about TGT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.1× | 15.5× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9× | 9.6× | — |
| P/S | 0.66× | 0.63× | — |
| P/B | 4.0× | 5.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.27σ from its own mean).
10.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$166
$140 – $200 · +5% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGTTarget Corporation | $71B | 16.1× | 9.9× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $34B | 22.8× | 14.9× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $43B | 31.9× | 21.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $35B | 30.8× | 10.8× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | $37B | 21.0× | 13.1× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $149 | $127.22 · +17% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $90 | $127.22 · −29% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.