Target Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Target's turnaround is gaining traction, with the last two completed quarters showing revenue growth of 5.3% and 6.7% YoY respectively, alongside EPS beats of 7.0% and 16.3% — a sharp reversal from the FY2025 full-year revenue decline of 1.7% and operating margin compression to 4.9%.
The stock trades at a 24.4% P/E discount and 20.9% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median, and technicals have cooled to a neutral RSI of 47.5 from prior overbought levels, offering a better entry near $156. With smart money turning modestly positive at 0.03 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun and a Barron's-cited analyst upgrade on September 30, 2026 noting the turnaround is taking hold, the risk/reward favors accumulation despite still-elevated insider selling.
What could go wrong
- Margin pressure from price cuts. Target announced price cuts on nearly 2,000 items in late September 2026; with operating margin already compressed to 4.9% in FY2025 from 5.2% in FY2024, aggressive pricing could further erode profitability.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of $39.15 million over 24 months, with CEO Brian Cornell selling 50,000 shares at $163.56 on August 25, 2026 and multiple executives selling in August 2026.
- Leverage and FCF deterioration. Total debt of $20.29 billion against equity of $16.17 billion as of FY2025, while free cash flow declined to $2.835 billion from $4.476 billion in FY2024, limiting financial flexibility.
- Turnaround still early-stage. Only two quarters of positive revenue growth follow multiple quarters of declines; FY2025 full-year EPS still fell 8.2% YoY, and the sustainability of the recovery is unproven.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals. Orin's read on TGT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 51.4% over twelve months, from $97.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $148.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $169.89 on 24 Aug 2026; the last close is 12.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 20.3M, on 20 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TGT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.1B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.0B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $896.3M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $831.5M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $816.9M | 0.1% |
124 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 86 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$29.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TGT
Orin answers questions about TGT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.5×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.3×near usual | 15.5× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.62×near usual | 0.63× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7×below usual | 9.6× | — |
| P/B | 3.8×below usual | 5.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $167 (from $140 to $200) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$167
$140 – $200 · +13% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGTTarget Corporation | $67B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $440B | 47.7× | 29.8× | 12.8% | 3.0% | 28% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $23B | 15.1× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $39B | 35.6× | 11.3× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $950B | 43.1× | 21.6× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $126 a share — 15% below the $148.20 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $126 | 15% below $148.20 |
| Levered | $74 | 50% below $148.20 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.