The TJX Companies, Inc. TJX
TJX is a buy after the stock's 11% one-month selloff pushed RSI to 22.7 — extremely oversold — despite the company beating estimates, raising guidance, and expanding margins in its latest print. FY2026 results show revenue of $60.4B growing 7.1% YoY with operating margin expanding to 11.89% and diluted EPS of $4.88 up 14.6%, while the valuation premium has compressed to a 13.1% PE premium over the peer median of 22.08x — far more reasonable than the 31.2% premium seen just weeks ago.
The disconnect between strong fundamental execution and technical weakness, combined with a PS ratio of 2.39 that sits 31% below the peer median, suggests the selloff is overdone and creates an attractive entry point for a best-in-class off-price retailer.
What could go wrong
- Technical downtrend. Price at $135.12 sits well below both the 50-day MA of $153.05 and 200-day MA of $155.06, with a negative MACD histogram of -1.78 as of 2026-08-28, indicating the downtrend may not be exhausted despite oversold readings.
- Institutional flows turning negative. Smart money score flipped from +0.229 as of Q1 2026 to -0.079 as of Q2 2026, suggesting institutional positioning has weakened.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders have sold $88.2M net over 24 months, including Executive Chairman Meyrowitz's $9.1M sale and SEVP Benjamin's $1.8M sale in June 2026.
- Competitive divergence. Closest rival Ross Stores has surged 34% year to date while TJX has declined, raising questions about whether market share dynamics are shifting.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · technicals, as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on TJX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TJX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $7.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
143 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 141 Form 4 filings, net −$88.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TJX
Orin answers questions about TJX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.3× | 27.3× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9× | 18.3× | — |
| P/S | 2.33× | 2.01× | — |
| P/B | 13.8× | 15.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.46σ from its own mean).
13.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$174
$145 – $198 · +34% against today's price
- 45 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc. | $145B | 24.3× | 16.9× | 32.1% | 9.7% | 60% |
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | $122B | 17.4× | 11.6× | 100.0% | 25.5% | -97% |
| LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $106B | 15.9× | 11.9× | 33.1% | 7.3% | -72% |
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | $168B | 19.2× | 14.8× | 57.4% | 31.7% | -561% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $53B | 17.1× | 12.1× | 42.9% | 6.7% | 22% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.2× | 20.0× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $76B | 28.3× | 18.5× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 33.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $100 | $165.88 · −40% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $98 | $165.88 · −41% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.