Talen Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Talen Energy's nuclear and data-center demand narrative is genuine — Google's 20-year nuclear deal, a $1.5B accelerated buyback with a $3B total authorization, and FY2025 revenue growth of 26.7% to $2.626B all support the story — but GAAP execution remains broken, with FY2025 net income of -$219M, Q2 2026 EPS of -$2.00 against a $3.21 estimate, and total debt of $6.821B against just $1.093B of equity.
The stock at $354.81 trades at a PS ratio of 4.76 versus a peer median of 2.66 and an EV/EBITDA of 36.23 versus 14.30, a premium that demands profitability the company has not yet delivered. Hold pending evidence that contracted capacity revenues translate into sustained GAAP earnings rather than only adjusted cash flow.
What could go wrong
- Leverage. Total debt of $6.821B against $1.093B of stockholders' equity creates significant financial risk if power prices soften or interest costs rise.
- Earnings misses. Q2 2026 EPS of -$2.00 versus a $3.21 estimate and Q4 2025 EPS of -$7.70 versus a $2.62 estimate show a pattern of significant GAAP shortfalls.
- Valuation premium. PS ratio of 4.76 is 79% above the peer median of 2.66 and EV/EBITDA of 36.23 is 153% above the peer median of 14.30, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Insider selling. Net insider selling of -$1.115B over the trailing 24 months with 23 dispositions versus 3 acquisitions signals limited insider conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on TLN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 15.1% over twelve months, from $407.12 on 27 Oct 2025 to $345.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $438.12 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 21.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.4M, on 16 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TLN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $832.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $789.1M | 0.0% |
| Fred Alger Management | $594.2M | 2.0% |
| State Street | $530.2M | 0.0% |
| Sachem Head Capital Management | $526.4M | 10.9% |
| Geode Capital Management | $366.5M | 0.0% |
| Carronade Capital Management | $305.7M | 5.3% |
| Millennium Management | $300.3M | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $291.3M | 0.0% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 192 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TLN
Orin answers questions about TLN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 4.63× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 28.1× |
| P/S | 4.63× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.6× | — | — |
| P/B | 9.8× | — | — |
- Listed on 2 Jun 2023 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $463 (from $387 to $560) — 34% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$463
$387 – $560 · +34% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | $16B | lost money | 35.6× | 44.6% | −5.2% | −14% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $92B | 25.1× | 14.5× | 22.2% | 11.1% | 15% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $20B | 25.1× | 13.7× | 19.4% | 2.6% | 25% |
| VSTVistra Corp. | $49B | 24.4× | 10.5× | 38.0% | 11.6% | 41% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.