T-Mobile US, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
T-Mobile's fundamentals are improving — FY2025 revenue grew 8.5% to $88.3B with FCF of $18.0B (20.4% margin), and 2026 quarterly gross margins have recovered to the mid-60% range after FY2025's anomalous 47.6% gross margin.
Q2 2026 EPS of $2.99 beat estimates by 15.4%, and the newly launched satellite JV with AT&T and Verizon adds strategic optionality. However, at 17.5x earnings — a 75% premium to the peer median of 10.0x — with 24-month insider net selling of $1.71B, a declining smart money score of 0.03 as of Q2 2026, and the stock trading at $167.65 below both its 50-day ($175.55) and 200-day ($190.74) moving averages, the risk/reward remains balanced. Hold pending Q3 2026 results to confirm the margin recovery and growth momentum are durable.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation. TMUS trades at 17.5x earnings versus a peer median of 10.0x — a 75% premium — leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $1.71B in shares (439 dispositions vs 1 acquisition), signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- High leverage. Total debt of $122.3B against stockholders' equity of $59.2B as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility.
- Declining institutional conviction. Smart money score fell to 0.03 as of Q2 2026 from 0.13 in Q3 2025, with fund count dropping from 67 to 66.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on TMUS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 33.5% over twelve months, from $220.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $146.83 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $221.98 on 24 Feb 2026; the last close is 33.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 19.0M, on 9 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TMUS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.6B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $5.3B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.3B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $2.0B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.4B | 0.2% |
124 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 514 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.7B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TMUS
Orin answers questions about TMUS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 22.8×); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.3×below usual | 22.8× | 18.9× |
| P/S | 1.71×below usual | 2.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7×below usual | 11.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.8×near usual | 2.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $222 (from $169 to $260) — 51% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$222
$169 – $260 · +51% against the last close
- 17 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (T 11.3×, VZ 11.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $158B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $141B | 11.3× | 6.7× | 59.7% | 10.1% | 12% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $183B | 11.2× | 7.5× | 59.1% | 11.8% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $270 a share — 84% above the $146.84 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $270 | 84% above $146.84 |
| Levered | $97 | 34% below $146.84 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.