Tennant Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Tennant Company remains a hold: early stabilization signals — Q2 2026 revenue up 1.7% YoY to $324M after Q4 2025's 11.3% decline, three insiders cluster-buying ~$849K in August 2026, and BlackRock's new 15.8% stake — are offset by deeply depressed profitability, with FY2025 operating margin at 5.7% versus 8.9% in FY2024 and Q2 2026 EPS of $0.83 missing estimates of $1.33 by 37.6%.
At 66x trailing P/E the stock is expensive on earnings, but P/S of 0.93 and EV/EBITDA of 14.8x are below peer medians, and management's robotics revenue target of $250M by 2028 offers upside if the ERP recovery fully takes hold.
What could go wrong
- ERP recovery stalls. ERP-related operating inefficiencies and North American parts shortages persisted through Q2 2026; if unresolved, margin recovery could be delayed further.
- European pricing pressure. Competitive pricing pressure in Europe was flagged in the Q2 2026 earnings call, threatening gross margin which already compressed to 40.2% in FY2025 from 42.8% in FY2024.
- Leverage rising. Total debt increased to $344.6M at FY2025 from $254.3M at FY2024 while operating cash flow fell to $65M, narrowing financial flexibility for the robotics investment plan.
- Robotics targets unproven. The $250M robotics revenue target by 2028 is aspirational against a current base of $85M; missing this milestone would undermine the bull-case narrative.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · insider trades. Orin's read on TNC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.2% over twelve months, from $81.70 on 27 Oct 2025 to $66.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $91.15 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 27.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.2M, on 24 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TNC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $236.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $103.5M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $86.0M | 0.0% |
| AllianceBernstein | $80.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $67.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $62.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $41.6M | 0.0% |
| Vision One Management Partners | $34.3M | 12.3% |
| Brown Advisory | $32.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $28.6M | 0.0% |
48 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 108 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$421K. Of the 50 on hand, 6 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TNC
Orin answers questions about TNC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 65.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.3×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 65.9×above usual | 18.3× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.93×below usual | 1.19× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9×above usual | 10.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×below usual | 2.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 2 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $140 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 112% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$140
$140 – $140 · +112% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 65.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 29.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNCTennant Company | $1B | 65.9× | 14.9× | 38.8% | 1.5% | 3% |
| BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. | $676M | lost money | — | 20.0% | −11.0% | n/m |
| DCODucommun Incorporated | $2B | 38.9× | 21.0× | 27.8% | 6.1% | 8% |
| GRCThe Gorman-Rupp Company | $2B | 26.9× | 15.2× | 32.5% | 10.2% | 17% |
| ICFIICF International, Inc. | $2B | 17.9× | 12.0× | 26.0% | 5.3% | 9% |
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1B | 32.8× | 25.0× | 59.2% | 21.3% | 24% |
- BW: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- BW: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 65.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now65.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $84 a share — 28% above the $65.86 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $84 | 28% above $65.86 |
| Levered | $36 | 46% below $65.86 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.