Tutor Perini Corporation TPC
Tutor Perini's FY2025 turnaround is confirmed — revenue grew 28.1% to $5.54B with $1.51 diluted EPS and $567M free cash flow, reversing three consecutive years of losses — but at $88.49 the stock trades at 37.5x earnings, a 47.8% premium to the peer median PE of 25.4x, while insiders have net sold approximately $172M of stock over the past 24 months including August 2026 sales at $95.66–$98.18 per share. The 0.78x price-to-sales and 13.8x EV/EBITDA — roughly 60% and 43% below peer medians — offer offsetting value support, and the stock remains above its 50-day ($84.59) and 200-day ($77.60) moving averages, but the combination of a rich earnings multiple, heavy insider distribution, and a bearish MACD histogram (-1.21) warrants patience rather than new commitment at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 37.5x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 25.4x, TPC trades at a 47.8% premium on PE; any disappointment in earnings momentum could trigger de-rating toward the peer median.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net sold approximately 2.72M shares worth $172M, including Feltenstein's August 2026 sales at $95.66–$98.18; sustained distribution by insiders at elevated prices signals limited conviction in further upside.
- GuruFocus fair-value gap. GuruFocus pegs GF Value at $36.41 versus a recent price of $91.73, implying substantial overvaluation by that model; while one metric, it underscores the risk if the market re-rates toward historical multiples.
- Margin sustainability. FY2025 gross margin of 11.68% and operating margin of 4.18%, though sharply improved from prior years, remain thin for a construction business; cost overruns on mega-projects could quickly erode profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite · insider summary + transactions. Orin's read on TPC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TPC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $164.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Gendell Jeffrey L | $127.7M | 1.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $107.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $89.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $65.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $60.3M | 0.0% of fund |
64 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 198 Form 4 filings, net −$371.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TPC
Orin answers questions about TPC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.8× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.75× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.5× | — | — |
-5.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$105
$105 – $105 · +24% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPCTutor Perini Corporation | $4B | 35.8× | 13.1× | 11.5% | 2.1% | 10% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 29.1× | 22.4× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| BRCBrady Corporation | $4B | 19.4× | 12.2× | 51.7% | 12.4% | 16% |
| EAFGrafTech International Ltd. | $296M | — | — | -5.7% | -34.6% | 64% |
| GVAGranite Construction Incorporated | $5B | — | 30.4× | 15.6% | -3.3% | -16% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $5B | 27.8× | 15.3× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| VSECVSE Corporation | $5B | 64.9× | 33.6× | 14.0% | 5.5% | 4% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.