Tutor Perini Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Tutor Perini's operational turnaround remains intact, with FY2025 revenue of $5.54B (28.1% YoY growth), $1.51 diluted EPS, and $567M free cash flow, while Q2 2026 (ended 30 Jun) delivered $1.23 EPS beating estimates by 84% and a $19.9B backlog supports multi-year revenue visibility.
However, the stock at $77.65 trades at a 32.9x PE — a 45% premium to the peer median of 22.6x — and Executive Chairman Ronald Tutor plus other insiders sold aggressively in August 2026 at $85.57–$97.50, contributing to a 24-month net insider disposition of roughly 4 million shares worth $286.7M. With the stock below both its 50-day MA ($87.64) and 200-day MA ($81.12) and RSI at 32.5 indicating oversold conditions, the discounted PS (0.69x, 60% below peer median) and EV/EBITDA (11.9x, 32% below peer median) are offset by the rich earnings multiple and persistent insider distribution, arguing for patience.
What could go wrong
- Insider distribution. Executive Chairman Ronald Tutor sold 2.31M shares on 31 Aug at $85.57, and 24-month net insider disposition totals 4.02M shares worth $286.7M, signaling potential concern from leadership about valuation or outlook.
- Valuation premium. PE of 32.9x sits 45% above the peer median of 22.6x despite the stock pulling back below its 200-day MA, limiting upside if earnings growth disappoints.
- Quarterly earnings volatility. Q1 2026 EPS of $0.48 missed the $0.96 estimate, demonstrating that results remain lumpy and unpredictable despite the broader turnaround.
- Thin margins. FY2025 gross margin of 11.7% and net margin of 1.5% leave little room for cost overruns or project delays on the $19.9B backlog to erode profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · results and earnings vs estimates, quarter to 30 Jun · news, 9 Oct · peer comparison, 16 Oct. Orin's read on TPC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 17.6% over twelve months, from $68.72 on 27 Oct 2025 to $80.81 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $99.11 on 7 Aug 2026; the last close is 18.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.2M, on 23 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TPC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $358.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $164.0M | 0.0% |
| Gendell Jeffrey L | $127.7M | 1.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $107.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $89.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $65.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $60.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $59.5M | 0.0% |
| Fred Alger Management | $49.7M | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $46.6M | 0.0% |
65 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 198 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$286.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TPC
Orin answers questions about TPC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 30.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.5× | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.69× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6×above usual | 7.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.7× to 43.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 0.10× to 0.64× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 0.3× to 2.9× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 2 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $105 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$105
$105 – $105 · +30% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 30.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPCTutor Perini Corporation | $4B | 30.5× | 11.6× | 11.8% | 2.3% | 11% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 26.5× | 20.3× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| BRCBrady Corporation | $4B | 19.1× | 12.0× | 51.7% | 12.4% | 16% |
| EAFGrafTech International Ltd. | $309M | lost money | n/m | −6.7% | −38.4% | n/m |
| GVAGranite Construction Incorporated | $5B | lost money | 30.1× | 15.6% | −3.3% | −16% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $4B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| VSECVSE Corporation | $5B | 40.6× | 21.2× | 15.6% | 7.3% | 5% |
- EAF, GVA: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- EAF: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- EAF: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 30.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now30.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $62 a share — 23% below the $80.53 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $62 | 23% below $80.53 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.