Tapestry, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Tapestry's FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 27 Jun) confirm a sharp profitability recovery, with revenue of $8.0B growing 14.2% YoY, operating margin expanding to 23.9%, and free cash flow of $1.81B — yet the stock has pulled back to $119.24 from a 52-week high of $164, trading at 15.23x earnings versus a peer median of 19.53x (a ~22% discount).
The MACD histogram has turned positive at 1.24 while RSI sits near neutral at 48.81, suggesting selling pressure is exhausting. With consistent EPS surprises across the last four quarters and a new Google AI commerce integration announced in September 2026, the fundamental-to-price disconnect is wide enough to justify accumulation despite weak near-term technicals.
What could go wrong
- Technical overhead. Stock trades below both its 50-day MA ($130.96) and 200-day MA ($138.65), meaning overhead supply could cap rallies near those levels.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders have been net sellers with net value of -$71.4M across 252 transactions, including recent September 2026 sales by the Chief People Officer at ~$115 per share.
- Leverage. Total debt stands at $3.95B against stockholders' equity of $692M as of FY2026, an elevated debt-to-equity profile that amplifies risk if luxury demand softens.
- FY2025 anomaly recurrence. FY2025 operating income collapsed to $415M with a negative Q4 operating loss of $583.5M, demonstrating earnings volatility tied to acquisition-related charges; a repeat could reset expectations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 27 Jun · peer comparison · technicals, 1 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on TPR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.1% over twelve months, from $114.97 on 27 Oct 2025 to $111.39 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $164.78 on 10 Aug 2026; the last close is 32.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.5M, on 13 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TPR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $962.6M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $771.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $603.6M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $563.9M | 0.2% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $548.2M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $498.1M | 0.0% |
103 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 252 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$52.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TPR
Orin answers questions about TPR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8× | — | 20.4× |
| P/S | 3.25×above usual | 1.52× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7× | — | — |
| P/B | 77.7× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 9.4× to 102× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 8.0× to 41.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 3.3× to 43.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $167 (from $140 to $200) — 50% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$167
$140 – $200 · +50% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (RL 21.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPRTapestry, Inc. | $27B | 16.8× | 13.7× | 78.3% | 19.7% | 284% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $23B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 71.8% | 12.6% | 38% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $50 a share — 55% below the $110.12 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $50 | 55% below $110.12 |
| Levered | $60 | 45% below $110.12 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.