Tapestry, Inc. TPR
Tapestry delivered a breakout FY2026 with 14.17% revenue growth to $8.0B, a 23.92% operating margin, and $1.81B in free cash flow, yet the stock has fallen 13.2% over the past month to $125.49—trading below both its 50-day ($143.28) and 200-day ($137.83) moving averages with a deeply negative MACD histogram. At 16.75x earnings, TPR sits ~15% below the peer median of 19.70x, but FY2027 guidance for slower growth, tariff headwinds, and Kate Spade losses keep the risk-reward unbalanced.
Smart money has only modestly recovered (score 0.0247 as of June 2026) and insiders remain net sellers ($87M over 24 months), so the stock needs a stabilization signal before the discount becomes actionable.
What could go wrong
- Tariff-driven margin compression. FY2027 outlook explicitly pits margin expansion against tariff pressure; sustained or escalated tariffs could erode the 23.92% operating margin achieved in FY2026.
- Kate Spade drag. Kate Spade's ongoing losses and declining sales raise execution risk across the portfolio and could offset Coach strength in FY2027.
- Technical breakdown persists. Stock is below both the 50-day ($143.28) and 200-day ($137.83) with RSI at 33.93 and negative MACD histogram (-1.75); further selling could trigger additional momentum-driven liquidation.
- Premium revenue multiple. PS ratio of 3.17x is ~71% above the peer median of 1.85x, meaning any revenue disappointment would hit the stock harder than peers.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 annual; derived_metrics FY2026 · Technicals as of 2026-08-28 · Peer relative as of latest; peer_relative pe_vs_median_pct · Peer relative ps_vs_median_pct. Orin's read on TPR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TPR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $962.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $771.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $603.6M | 0.0% of fund |
100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 252 Form 4 filings, net −$71.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TPR
Orin answers questions about TPR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.8× | 11.8× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9× | 9.1× | — |
| P/S | 2.79× | 1.52× | — |
| P/B | 32.6× | 3.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.41σ from its own mean).
1.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$175
$140 – $232 · +58% against today's price
- 30 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPRTapestry, Inc. | $22B | 14.8× | 11.9× | 77.8% | 19.1% | 263% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.4× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 9.1% | 56% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $17B | 15.4× | 11.0× | 22.2% | 12.1% | 31% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.1× | 9.9× | 24.5% | 11.6% | 15% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $21B | 21.0× | 14.8× | 70.3% | 11.8% | 36% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $23B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.0× | 14.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 26.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $35 | $141.37 · −75% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $42 | $141.37 · −70% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.