Trimble Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Trimble's revenue inflection is real — Q1 and Q2 2026 posted YoY growth of 11.8% and 11.0% respectively after two consecutive years of decline, and FY2025 gross margin expanded to 68.3% from 65.1% in FY2024 — but the profit and cash-flow picture remains too messy to justify the valuation.
Q2 2026 swung to a GAAP net loss of $471.7M (EPS -$2.02) despite positive operating income of $132M, FY2025 free cash flow margin compressed to 3.7% as capital expenditure jumped to $253M, and EV/EBITDA at 54.7x stands 210% above the peer median of 17.6x. With the stock at $59.95 sitting above its 50-day MA ($58.76) but below its 200-day MA ($61.56), the improving top-line trend warrants continued monitoring rather than committing capital at this multiple.
What could go wrong
- One-time charge recurrence. Q2 2026 net loss of $471.7M against positive operating income of $132M suggests a large non-operational charge; if similar items recur, earnings quality remains questionable.
- FCF deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow margin fell to 3.7% from 13.5% in FY2024 as capex surged to $253M; sustained cash-flow weakness would undermine the growth narrative.
- Valuation compression. EV/EBITDA of 54.7x is 210% above the peer median of 17.6x; any disappointment in revenue growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 366,252 shares valued at $29.2M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on TRMB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 22.1% over twelve months, from $81.12 on 27 Oct 2025 to $63.16 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $83.52 on 5 Dec 2025; the last close is 24.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 26.0M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TRMB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $779.8M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $649.2M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $620.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $596.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $476.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $377.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $337.9M | 0.0% |
| Select Equity Group | $260.0M | 1.3% |
| Wellington Management Group | $162.1M | 0.0% |
92 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 365 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$29.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TRMB
Orin answers questions about TRMB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 3.25× its yearly sales — below its usual level (4.70×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 42.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 3.25×below usual | 4.70× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.4×above usual | 21.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.5×below usual | 3.1× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $74 (from $61 to $80) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$74
$61 – $80 · +17% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $13B | lost money | 50.4× | 68.9% | −4.1% | −3% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $51B | 31.2× | 21.8× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | $17B | 51.7× | 22.4× | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | $21B | 21.9× | 14.6× | 82.8% | 37.8% | n/m |
| TTEKTetra Tech, Inc. | $9B | 22.1× | 15.0× | 18.8% | 8.6% | 24% |
- PTC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $40 a share — 36% below the $63.35 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $40 | 36% below $63.35 |
| Levered | $19 | 70% below $63.35 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.