Trimble Inc. TRMB
Trimble's FY2025 (ended 2026-01-02) results show improving gross margins at 68.3% and operating margins at 16.9% alongside meaningful debt reduction to $1.39B from $3.19B two years prior, but revenue has declined for two consecutive years (–2.6% in FY2025, –3.0% in FY2024) and FCF margin compressed sharply to 3.71% as capex spiked to $253M from $33.6M. At $61.01 the stock trades at 3.76x sales — roughly in line with the peer median of 3.69x — but its 58.77x EV/EBITDA stands 175% above the peer median of 21.39x, limiting the case for multiple expansion despite BlackRock's reported $1.1B new position and a broadly positive analyst consensus implying ~28% upside.
The balance sheet repair and margin expansion are real, but declining top-line growth and compressed free cash flow warrant patience before committing new capital.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. Revenue has contracted for two consecutive fiscal years (–3.0% in FY2024, –2.6% in FY2025), calling into question whether the margin gains are sustainable without top-line growth.
- FCF collapse from capex surge. FY2025 free cash flow fell to $133.2M (3.71% margin) from $497.8M (13.52% margin) the prior year, driven by capex jumping to $253M from $33.6M; if capex remains elevated, the cash-generation story weakens.
- Extreme EV/EBITDA premium. At 58.77x EV/EBITDA, TRMB trades at a 175% premium to the peer median of 21.39x, leaving little room for execution missteps or further earnings softness.
- Institutional positioning slightly negative. Smart money score is –0.0182 as of 2026-06-30 with fund count declining from 63 to 60 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting muted enthusiasm from sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative. Orin's read on TRMB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TRMB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $779.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $649.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $620.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $596.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $476.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $377.0M | 0.0% of fund |
89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 365 Form 4 filings, net $1.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TRMB
Orin answers questions about TRMB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 57.3× | 21.0× | — |
| P/S | 3.66× | 4.70× | — |
| P/B | 2.7× | 3.1× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−12.52σ from its own mean).
30.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$74
$61 – $80 · +24% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $14B | — | 57.3× | 68.4% | -2.8% | -2% |
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $59B | 69.1× | 39.2× | 37.5% | 11.3% | 8% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc. | $26B | 23.7× | 13.7× | 73.3% | 22.7% | 30% |
| FNFabrinet | $14B | 30.3× | 25.3× | 12.0% | 10.2% | 21% |
| FTVFortive Corporation | $17B | 32.7× | 18.8× | 63.2% | 12.4% | 9% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | $13B | 14.2× | 11.0× | 63.8% | 17.8% | 661% |
| ITGartner, Inc. | $12B | 16.0× | 10.3× | 68.9% | 12.0% | 401% |
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | $17B | 49.2× | 21.6× | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $32B | 38.1× | 16.4× | 9.2% | 2.6% | 62% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | $19B | 12.5× | 48.9× | 86.8% | 52.8% | -396% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $14B | 43.6× | 29.7× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $44 | $51.35 · −15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $21 | $51.35 · −60% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.