T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. TROW
T. Rowe Price screens cheap at 11.3x trailing earnings and 7.5x EV/EBITDA—roughly 49% and 44% below the asset-management peer medians—but the fundamental picture is deteriorating, with operating margin compressing from 32.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025 and net income declining 0.6% year-over-year despite 3.1% revenue growth.
The just-announced F/m Investments acquisition adds fixed-income ETF optionality, and smart-money positioning tick up modestly to 0.030 as of Q2 2026, but the stock has slipped below its 50-day moving average ($114.00 vs. a $112.55 close) and a VP sold 10,000 shares on August 25, 2026. The wide valuation discount is largely earned by anemic growth and persistent margin pressure, making this a wait-and-see rather than a compelling entry.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. Operating margin fell from 32.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025 while revenue grew only 3.1%; further compression would erode the earnings base supporting the cheap multiple.
- Integration risk from F/m acquisition. The F/m Investments deal announced August 20, 2026 adds ~$19B in AUM but introduces execution risk in a new ETF/SMA capability where TROW lacks scale.
- Insider selling signal. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net acquired 223,604 shares but net sold $10.5M in value; a VP sold 10,000 shares at $111.82 on August 25, 2026, suggesting limited insider conviction at current prices.
- Technical breakdown. Stock closed at $112.55, below its 50-day MA of $114.00, with MACD histogram negative at -0.024; a break below the 200-day MA of $103.35 would signal further downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · derived_metrics · derived_metrics · news (PRNewsWire). Orin's read on TROW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TROW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $961.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $814.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $709.9M | 0.0% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings, net −$10.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TROW
Orin answers questions about TROW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.4× | 13.5× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9× | 7.7× | — |
| P/S | 2.94× | 3.74× | — |
| P/B | 2.0× | 2.5× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.69σ from its own mean).
3.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$114
$108 – $120 · +9% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 24 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.9× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.5× | 7.3× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $70B | 26.1× | 6.0× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $166B | 25.3× | 16.0× | 55.7% | 24.1% | 12% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $142B | 26.0× | 18.2× | 88.8% | 21.9% | 41% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $14B | — | 9.6× | 67.4% | -0.9% | -1% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $86B | 28.5× | 12.9× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 16.2× | 12.4× | 48.5% | 9.9% | 13% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 58.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $125 | $106.98 · +17% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $104 | $106.98 · −3% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.