T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
T.
Rowe Price trades at 10.5x trailing earnings and 6.9x EV/EBITDA—roughly 49% and 45% below asset-management peer medians—despite accelerating quarterly revenue growth to 10.7% YoY in Q2 2026 (ended 30 Jun) and a streak of positive earnings surprises including an 8.2% EPS beat in Q1 2026. The stock has pulled back to $104.51, sitting just above its 200-day moving average of $103.87 with an RSI of 39.8, offering a technical entry near support. Persistent mutual-fund outflows and operating-margin compression from 32.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025 temper the bull case, but the deep valuation discount, improving top-line trajectory, and approximately 5.0% dividend yield make the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin fell from 32.9% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2025, and net income declined 0.6% YoY despite 3.1% revenue growth, signaling cost pressures or mix shift that could further erode profitability.
- Debt increase. Total debt tripled from $278.7M at year-end 2024 to $860.2M at year-end 2025, likely tied to the F/m Investments acquisition, raising financial leverage and integration risk.
- Persistent outflows. News coverage notes ongoing net outflows from actively managed mutual funds, a structural headwind to AUM growth and fee revenue even as the firm expands ETF offerings.
- Smart-money weakness. Smart-money score declined from 0.02 as of Q1 2026 to 0.01 as of Q2 2026, and the data is flagged stale, suggesting institutional conviction is not building.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates · fundamentals. Orin's read on TROW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 1.2% over twelve months, from $104.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $103.63 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $121.68 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 14.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.4M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TROW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.7B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $961.0M | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $814.4M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $709.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $468.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $449.7M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $363.2M | 0.0% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 160 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TROW
Orin answers questions about TROW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.8×); the typical Financial Services company on the NASDAQ is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.4×below usual | 13.8× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 2.91×below usual | 3.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2×below usual | 7.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×below usual | 2.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $111 (from $107 to $120) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$111
$107 – $120 · +7% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.2× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $16B | 20.8× | 16.5× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $176B | 25.5× | 16.0× | 65.0% | 24.2% | 12% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $13B | lost money | n/m | 74.6% | −1.1% | −1% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 15.9× | 8.5× | n/a | 9.9% | 13% |
- IVZ: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PFG: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- IVZ: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $136 a share — 31% above the $104.05 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $136 | 31% above $104.05 |
| Levered | $100 | 4% below $104.05 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.