The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Travelers' FY2025 fundamentals are strong — EPS grew 27.8% to $27.43 on a 16.0% operating margin with $10.6B in free cash flow — and Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates by 24.2% ($9.18 actual vs. $7.39 estimated), but Q3 2026 revenue turned slightly negative at -0.5% YoY for the first time and the stock has rallied to $389.54 with RSI at 72.59.
Trading at a 14.9% P/E discount to the peer median of 11.81, the valuation is reasonable, but the overbought technical setup and stalling top-line momentum argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline persists. Q3 2026 revenue went negative YoY (-0.5%) for the first time, potentially signaling pricing softness in commercial lines.
- Overbought pullback. RSI at 72.59 with the stock well above its 50-day ($369.29) and 200-day ($324.11) moving averages leaves it vulnerable to a mean-reversion drawdown.
- Catastrophe exposure. As a P&C insurer, elevated natural-disaster losses could compress the 16.0% operating margin achieved in FY2025.
- Persistent insider selling. 24-month insider net dispositions total $165.2M across 101 transactions with zero open-market acquisitions of significance.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 16 Oct · Q3 2026 results · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on TRV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 46.9% over twelve months, from $270.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $397.03 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $405.44 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.8M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TRV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $5.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.4B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $936.8M | 0.3% |
114 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 334 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$229.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TRV
Orin answers questions about TRV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.1×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.2×below usual | 11.1× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.66×above usual | 1.18× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8×below usual | 8.6× | — |
| P/B | 2.8×above usual | 2.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $356 (from $290 to $430) — 10% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$356
$290 – $430 · −10% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 11.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $81B | 10.2× | 7.8× | n/a | 17.0% | 26% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $67B | 6.0× | 4.8× | n/a | 16.8% | 36% |
| CBChubb Limited | $137B | 12.4× | 13.1× | n/a | 18.0% | 15% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $28B | 10.6× | 7.8× | n/a | 20.1% | 17% |
| LLoews Corporation | $23B | 13.6× | 8.7× | n/a | 10.4% | 10% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $131B | 11.3× | 9.1× | n/a | 12.7% | 35% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $27B | 15.2× | 11.1× | n/a | 10.4% | 19% |
- TRV, ALL, CB, CINF, L, PGR, WRB: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- WRB: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.