The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV
Travelers remains a buy as FY2025 results show continued margin expansion — operating margin reached 15.97% (up from 13.31% in 2024) and net margin hit 12.88%, driving diluted EPS of $27.43, up 27.8% year-over-year. At a P/E of 9.65 and EV/EBITDA of 7.50, TRV trades at roughly 11.6% and 14.5% discounts to peer medians respectively, while free cash flow of $10.6B (FCF margin 21.72%) underscores capital efficiency.
The stock sits above both its 50-day ($359.00) and 200-day ($310.78) moving averages with neutral RSI of 48.8, offering a reasonable entry after the prior overbought condition resolved.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 5.2% YoY from 12.2% in 2024 and 12.1% in 2023, and recent news highlights moderating insurance pricing momentum, which could pressure top-line growth further.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 598,018 shares for $250.9M, with recent transactions dominated by option exercises followed by same-day sales at prices near $370–$387.
- Weak smart money positioning. Smart money score stood at just 0.0253 as of 2026-06-30, down from 0.0668 in Q3 2025, with fund count declining from 64 to 62 quarter-over-quarter.
- Catastrophe loss volatility. As a P&C insurer with significant personal and commercial property exposure, TRV's underwriting results remain vulnerable to elevated catastrophe activity, which could reverse the margin expansion trend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy · peer_relative · peer_relative. Orin's read on TRV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TRV filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 7 Aug | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 24 Jul | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 17 Jul | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 17 Jul | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 22 May | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 21 May | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | read |
| DEFA14A | 12 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 6 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $5.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $1.4B | 0.4% of fund |
111 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 308 Form 4 filings, net −$250.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TRV
Orin answers questions about TRV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5× | 11.0× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4× | 8.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.53× | 1.18× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.0× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.31σ from its own mean).
-6.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $10.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$351
$290 – $430 · −4% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75B | 9.5× | 7.4× | 34.7% | 17.0% | 26% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $58B | 4.5× | 3.7× | 42.2% | 19.2% | 43% |
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25B | 7.6× | 5.5× | 52.3% | 23.8% | 21% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $118B | 10.2× | 8.2× | 26.9% | 12.8% | 35% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $1004 | $304.42 · +230% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $1306 | $304.42 · +329% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.