Tractor Supply Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
TSCO remains a fundamentally pressured story — FY2025 gross margin compressed to 33.2% from 36.3% and Q2 2026 EPS fell to $0.69 from $0.81 a year earlier — but the stock at $33.16 has already absorbed significant damage, trading 15% below its 200-day MA of $38.97 and at a 17.27x PE that discounts the peer median by roughly 31%.
A cluster buy by three insiders in August 2026 and a still-positive FCF margin of 4.8% in FY2025 suggest the deterioration is recognized but not yet catastrophic. With Q3 2026 earnings scheduled for October 22 and consensus expecting an 18% earnings decline, the risk/reward is balanced enough to warrant patience rather than an exit at these depressed levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. FY2025 gross margin fell to 33.2% from 36.3% in FY2024 and operating margin declined to 9.5% from 9.9%; if Q3 2026 shows further contraction, the earnings power of the model is structurally impaired.
- High leverage. Total debt of $5.94B against stockholders' equity of $2.58B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies earnings risk if revenue growth stays below 3%.
- Earnings misses persist. TSCO missed EPS estimates in Q1 2026 (actual $0.31 vs estimate $0.34) and Q4 2025 (actual $0.43 vs estimate $0.46); a continued pattern would erode credibility and the dividend streak.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 2.3% marks a sharp deceleration from Q3 2025's 7.2%, suggesting the rural lifestyle thesis is losing momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on TSCO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 42.8% over twelve months, from $56.37 on 27 Oct 2025 to $32.24 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $56.37 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 42.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 36.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TSCO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $949.0M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $844.3M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $744.0M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $742.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $490.7M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $332.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $292.1M | 0.1% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 129 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$24.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSCO
Orin answers questions about TSCO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.8×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.3×below usual | 24.8× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 1.05×below usual | 1.76× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4×below usual | 16.8× | — |
| P/B | 6.3×below usual | 12.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $36.63 (from $31 to $41) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$36.63
$31 – $41 · +14% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 17.3× | 12.4× | 31.5% | 6.1% | 38% |
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $26B | 33.4× | 19.4× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $111B | 16.7× | 11.7× | 33.1% | 7.3% | n/m |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $950B | 43.1× | 21.6× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
- LOW: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $31 a share — 3% below the $32.12 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $31 | 3% below $32.12 |
| Levered | $34 | 7% above $32.12 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.