Tractor Supply Company TSCO
TSCO trades at a discount to peers on every multiple — 18.4x earnings versus a 21.5x peer median and 13.0x EV/EBITDA versus 15.4x — but FY2025 gross margin compressed to 33.2% from 36.3% in FY2024, and net income declined 0.5% even as revenue grew 4.3% to $15.5B. A cluster buy by three insiders around August 3–4 (~$652K) and the stock's rebound above its 50-day MA to $35.38 are constructive, but the price remains well below its 200-day MA of $42.69 and total debt of $5.94B against $2.58B of equity limits financial flexibility.
The thesis needs evidence that gross margins are stabilizing before turning more positive; until then, deteriorating profitability and elevated leverage warrant patience.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin erosion. FY2025 gross margin fell to 33.2% from 36.3% in FY2024, a material compression that signals pricing pressure or mix shift; if this trend continues, operating margin (already down to 9.45% from 9.86%) will keep contracting.
- High leverage. Total debt of $5.94B against stockholders' equity of $2.58B as of FY2025 leaves little buffer if discretionary spending weakens further or if capex ($895M) continues outpacing FCF ($740M).
- Technical overhead. Stock at $35.38 sits 17% below its 200-day MA of $42.69; a failure to reclaim that level could cap upside and signal the downtrend remains intact.
- Mixed institutional flows. Smart money score is slightly negative at -0.0127 as of 2026-06-30, and while some funds are initiating positions, others like Benjamin Edwards cut 585K shares and Alecta reduced its stake by 22.5% in Q2 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · insider cluster_buy. Orin's read on TSCO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TSCO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $949.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $844.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $744.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $742.9M | 0.0% of fund |
97 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 127 Form 4 filings, net −$4.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSCO
Orin answers questions about TSCO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8× | 24.8× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2× | 16.8× | — |
| P/S | 1.08× | 1.76× | — |
| P/B | 6.4× | 12.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.39σ from its own mean).
9.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$37
$28 – $51 · +14% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 16.8× | 12.2× | 32.5% | 6.4% | 39% |
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $19B | 15.1× | 8.1× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $22B | 28.6× | 16.9× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $48B | 22.1× | 17.6× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $30B | 15.5× | 7.3× | 90.4% | 13.0% | 185% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $18B | 495.2× | 32.4× | 36.2% | 0.1% | 1% |
| LENLennar Corporation | $20B | 15.4× | 11.9× | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6% |
| ROLRollins, Inc. | $16B | 29.5× | 19.3× | 50.7% | 13.6% | 37% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $23B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.0× | 14.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $40 | $30.80 · +31% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $44 | $30.80 · +43% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.