Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSM
TSMC remains a buy on the current pullback below its 50-day MA at $423.43, with FY2025 results showing 32.97% revenue growth to TWD 3.85T and gross margins expanding to 59.89%. The stock trades at a P/E of 28.05 versus a semiconductor peer median of 45.73 — a 38.65% discount — while smart money inflows reached a score of 0.8929 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 and a cluster buy by 30 insiders between July 20 and August 19, 2026 confirms internal conviction.
With MACD histogram turning positive and the 200-day MA at $369.53 anchoring the long-term uptrend, the risk/reward remains favorable for this AI infrastructure leader.
What could go wrong
- Geopolitical risk. Any escalation in Taiwan Strait tensions could materially impact operations and valuation given TSMC's manufacturing concentration on the island.
- AI demand deceleration. FY2025 capex of TWD 1.29T could pressure free cash flow (TWD 1.10T) if AI-driven advanced node demand slows, creating overcapacity.
- Margin compression. Gross margins expanded from 54.36% in 2023 to 59.89% in 2025; any reversal from pricing pressure or ramp costs on new nodes would reset valuation expectations.
- Currency headwinds. Results reported in TWD while ADR trades in USD; TWD appreciation against USD could erode ADR-level returns.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals & derived_metrics, FY2025 · Peer relative data, as of 2026-08-28 · 13F composite, as of 2026-06-30 · Insider transaction filings. Orin's read on TSM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TSM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $28.1B | 1.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $16.4B | 1.9% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $10.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $7.7B | 0.7% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $7.3B | 0.5% of fund |
236 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 249 Form 4 filings, net −$11.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 31 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSM
Orin answers questions about TSM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.0× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2× | — | — |
| P/S | 14.60× | — | — |
| P/B | 10.1× | — | — |
-27.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1097.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$578
$500 – $700 · +30% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.32T | 29.0× | 19.2× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc. | $13B | 23.8× | 10.2× | 15.5% | 7.4% | 12% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $672B | 55.0× | 42.0× | 52.7% | 30.1% | 52% |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $97B | 49.8× | 21.1× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.69T | 44.0× | 33.0× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| DIODDiodes Incorporated | $4B | 50.8× | 19.0× | 31.7% | 5.3% | 5% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.90T | 27.7× | 18.6× | 81.7% | 29.8% | 30% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd. | $26B | 88.8× | 45.0× | 26.9% | 16.9% | 10% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 38.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.