Tyson Foods, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Tyson Foods remains a hold as the stock has rebounded roughly 8% from its late-September lows to $54.90 as of 16 Oct, with improving near-term momentum (RSI 64.5, MACD histogram positive at 0.52, price above the 50-day MA of $54.03), but the fundamental recovery is still unconvincing.
FY2025 results (ended 27 Sep 2025) show gross margin compressed to 6.5% versus 12.5% in FY2022, EPS down 40% YoY to $1.36, and Q3 FY2026 revenue essentially flat at -0.12% YoY with uneven sequential EPS ($0.24, $0.73, $0.52 across the first three quarters of FY2026). The valuation is mixed — EV/EBITDA of 10.22x is 33% below the peer median of 15.18x, but the P/E of 32.87x is in line with Hormel at 32.38x, leaving no clear margin of safety for a company still below its 200-day MA of $59.74.
What could go wrong
- Beef segment losses persist. Recent news explicitly notes Tyson's beef business is 'hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars,' which continues to drag overall margins despite strength in other segments.
- Margin compression structural. Gross margin fell from 13.9% in FY2021 to 6.5% in FY2025, and operating margin collapsed from 9.3% to 2.0% over the same period, suggesting the margin recovery may be slow or incomplete.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score declined from 0.02 as of 31 Dec 2025 to 0.00 as of 30 Jun, indicating institutional conviction is fading even as fund count rose to 62.
- Net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider transactions net to -87,390 shares and -$5.2M in value, with only one open-market purchase (CEO-Elect Schomburger's $1.0M buy at $51.50 on 4 Sep) against ongoing dispositions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q3 FY26 results · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on TSN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 7.0% over twelve months, from $52.09 on 27 Oct 2025 to $55.75 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $68.75 on 4 May 2026; the last close is 18.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.9M, on 24 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TSN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $889.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $839.4M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $469.3M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $440.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $316.4M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $275.1M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $261.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $256.9M | 0.0% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$5.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSN
Orin answers questions about TSN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.4× | — | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.35×above usual | 0.32× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3×above usual | 8.4× | — |
| P/B | 0.9×below usual | 0.9× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 7.2× to 39.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $65.40 (from $56 to $75) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$65.40
$56 – $75 · +17% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (HRL 33.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $20B | 33.4× | 10.3× | 6.1% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $89 a share — 60% above the $55.59 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $89 | 60% above $55.59 |
| Levered | $60 | 7% above $55.59 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.