Tyson Foods, Inc. TSN
Tyson Foods remains a hold as the beef restructuring announced in August 2026 is a rational response to a historic cattle shortage, but FY2025 results show the earnings recovery is faltering — EPS fell 40% to $1.36 even as revenue grew 2.1% to $54.4B, and gross profit declined to $3.56B from $3.63B the prior year. At 34.7x trailing earnings versus a 21.3x peer median, the stock prices in a margin recovery that has not yet materialized, while smart money scores have deteriorated from 0.031 to -0.004 over the past two quarters as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
Debt reduction to $8.83B and $1.18B in FCF provide a floor, and the beef footprint rationalization could eventually stabilize segment losses, but there is no clear catalyst to justify paying a premium multiple for deteriorating earnings.
What could go wrong
- Structural cattle shortage. USDA data shows limited heifer retention, meaning beef supply constraints and segment losses could persist for multiple years despite the three-facility restructuring announced August 2026.
- Valuation compression. At 34.7x trailing PE versus a 21.3x peer median, any further earnings disappointment could trigger multiple contraction, especially with EPS already down 40% YoY in FY2025.
- Smart money exodus. Institutional smart money score turned negative at -0.0035 as of 2026-06-30, down from 0.031 in Q4 2025, with fund count declining from 61 to 60.
- Margin pressure spreading. Gross margin compressed to 6.54% in FY2025 from 6.8% in FY2024; if beef losses spill into other segments or chicken margins weaken, the thin operating margin of 2.65% offers little buffer.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics (eps_growth_yoy: -0.3956) · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics (revenue_growth_yoy: 0.0212) · FMP FY2025 vs FY2024 fundamentals (gross_profit) · peer_relative (pe: 34.72, peer_median_pe: 21.28). Orin's read on TSN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TSN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $889.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $839.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $469.3M | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $440.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $316.4M | 0.0% of fund |
80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings, net −$31.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSN
Orin answers questions about TSN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.6× | — | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8× | 9.8× | — |
| P/S | 0.33× | 0.40× | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.86σ from its own mean).
4.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$67
$65 – $75 · +32% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.6× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.4× | 14.9× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.6× | 20.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.9× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 7.9× | 12.7× | 38.6% | 22.0% | 26% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 73.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $79 | $56.34 · +40% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $53 | $56.34 · −6% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.