Trane Technologies plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Trane Technologies' fundamentals remain strong — FY2025 revenue of $21.3B grew 7.5% with operating margin expanding to 18.6% and diluted EPS of $12.98 up 15.5%, while Q2 2026 showed revenue re-acceleration to 10.6% YoY ($6.35B) with EPS of $4.16 beating the $4.27 estimate.
Technicals have improved since the prior verdict: shares at $469.94 now trade above both the 50-day ($454.49) and 200-day ($449.36) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram of 4.08. However, valuation remains a constraint at 35.3x earnings — a 27.1% premium to the peer median of 27.8x — and 24.6x EV/EBITDA (48.1% premium), while insiders remain net sellers at -$90.0M over 24 months including the CEO's October 6 sale at $480.00 per share.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. PE of 35.3x and EV/EBITDA of 24.6x sit at 27.1% and 48.1% premiums to peer medians; any growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of -$90.0M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions; CEO Regnery sold 48,091 shares at $480 on October 6, 2026.
- Revenue growth deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth of 7.5% slowed from 12.2% in FY2024; if Q3 2026 reverts to mid-single-digit growth the momentum case weakens.
- Rate-sensitive end markets. HVAC and construction exposure ties results to commercial real estate cycles and interest rate dynamics.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · technicals, 8 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on TT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 7.7% over twelve months, from $428.28 on 27 Oct 2025 to $461.07 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $503.46 on 25 Jun 2026; the last close is 8.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.4M, on 29 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.7B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.1B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.0B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $5.0B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.6B | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
113 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 128 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$90.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TT
Orin answers questions about TT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.7×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.7×above usual | 29.7× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 4.57×above usual | 3.41× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.1×above usual | 21.3× | — |
| P/B | 11.8×above usual | 7.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $548 (from $485 to $585) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$548
$485 – $585 · +19% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTTrane Technologies plc | $101B | 34.7× | 24.1× | 35.4% | 13.3% | 34% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $48B | 39.8× | 19.2× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $94B | 33.2× | 25.0× | 37.1% | 11.1% | 21% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.0× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $250 a share — 46% below the $459.02 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $250 | 46% below $459.02 |
| Levered | $276 | 40% below $459.02 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.