TTDNasdaq·Software - Application

The Trade Desk, Inc. TTD

Market cap $6.0BP/E 15.1× trailingGross margin 83.0%Reports Thu 5 Nov, after the close

$12.73

+0.05 (+0.39%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $12.58 – $56.39

Watch

Orin's take

0.55conviction · moderate

Refreshed 25 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Get emailed if this changes

The Trade Desk has been crushed to 7-year lows at $13.27, trading at a 58% PE discount to peers (15.8x vs 37.6x median) and a 69% EV/EBITDA discount, but the deterioration is real — FY2025 revenue growth decelerated to 18.5% from 25.6% in FY2024, a weak Q3 outlook and a freshly filed mixed shelf offering add near-term uncertainty, and the stock sits well below both its 50-day ($17.39) and 200-day ($26.37) moving averages. With FY2025 FCF margin still robust at 27.5% and operating margin expanding to 20.4%, the valuation arguably over-discounts the damage, yet there is no visible positive catalyst and smart money has drifted slightly negative (-0.0038 as of 2026-06-30).

The call is to hold rather than chase — wait for evidence of revenue reacceleration or stabilization before committing capital.

What could go wrong

Shelf offering dilution. A mixed shelf prospectus filed on 2026-08-24 could result in equity issuance at depressed prices near $13.27, diluting existing holders.
Q3 outlook weakness. News outlets report a cautious Q3 outlook reflecting macro pressure, raising the risk of further revenue deceleration beyond the FY2025 18.5% growth rate.
Ad-tech sector pressure. Headlines describe demand-side ad tech as 'keeps breaking,' with TTD falling 6% in a single session and hitting 7-year lows, suggesting broader sector dislocation.
Institutional outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0038 as of 2026-06-30, with fund count declining from 59 to 56 quarter-over-quarter.

What would change my mind

Revenue reacceleration. Quarterly revenue growth re-accelerates above 20% YoY with an upward revision to full-year guidancebullish

Shelf offering clarity. Company clarifies or withdraws the mixed shelf filing, or prices any offering with minimal dilutionbullish

Further guidance cut. Q3 2026 actual results miss the already cautious outlook or FY2026 guidance is cut below 15% revenue growthbearish

Technical breakdown. Price closes below $10 on heavy volume, indicating loss of institutional support and potential for further capitulationbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025/FY2024 · peer_relative · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-24. Orin's read on TTD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All TTD filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
DEF 14A	18 Sep	—	on file
8-K	4 Sep	—	on file
10-Q	6 Aug	Revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026, was $715.1 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, while net income decreased 29% to $64.4 million.	read
8-K	6 Aug	The Trade Desk reported second quarter 2026 revenue of $715 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, and GAAP net income of $64 million.	read
13G/A	31 Jul	—	on file
8-K	13 Jul	The Trade Desk, Inc. appointed Penry Price to its Board of Directors as a Class II director, effective July 9, 2026, increasing the Board size to seven. Mr. Price will serve on…	read
8-K	9 Jun	The Trade Desk, Inc. appointed David Haddad to its board of directors as a Class III director and to the audit committee, effective June 11, 2026. This appointment fills a vacancy…	read
8-K	1 Jun	The Trade Desk, Inc. appointed Nate Olmstead, age 54, as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 9, 2026, replacing interim CFO Tahnil Davis. Olmstead joins from Penguin…	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
State Street	$565.6M	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$504.4M	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$350.4M	0.0% of fund
Two Sigma Investments	$308.3M	0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$291.5M	0.0% of fund
Invesco	$248.8M	0.0% of fund

81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 199 Form 4 filings, net $361.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about TTD

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about TTD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	15.1×	196.8×	53.3×
EV/EBITDA	6.6×	123.0×	—
P/S	1.99×	18.09×	—
P/B	2.3×	16.3×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.61σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-6.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

47 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$15

$6 – $25 · +16% against today's price

How they rate it

17 buy or overweight
25 hold
5 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 38.1× of 5 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.	$6B	15.1×	6.6×	83.0%	13.6%	16%
FLEXFlex Ltd.	$41B	43.4×	23.4×	9.5%	3.3%	19%
JBLJabil Inc.	$32B	38.1×	16.4×	9.2%	2.6%	62%
PTCPTC Inc.	$16B	13.5×	10.4×	84.1%	41.4%	33%
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.	$14B	43.6×	29.7×	46.6%	13.4%	9%
VRSNVeriSign, Inc.	$27B	31.8×	23.3×	88.5%	49.8%	-39%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 60.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY15 162.7×FY25 41.3×

What its sector has traded at

Technology

FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$36	$19.45 · +85%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$41	$19.45 · +112%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $12.73

52-week range$13 – $56

Analyst targets$6 – $25

Standard DCF$36 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $19.45

Levered DCF$41 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $19.45

At own 5y-median P/E (197×)$165

At 5y P/E range (41–409×)$35 – $343

At sector P/E (53×)$45

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.