The Trade Desk, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
TTD is a sell.
After two consecutive EPS misses and Q2 2026 revenue growth collapsing to 3.0% YoY from 18.7% a year earlier, management's Q3 2026 guidance of at least $650M implies a roughly 12% year-over-year revenue decline — a structural break for a company that grew revenue 18.5% in FY2025. Despite trading at 14.6x earnings versus a peer median of 32.8x, the discount reflects a deteriorating franchise facing intensifying competition from AppLovin and Unity's Vector platform; with revenue declining and institutional fund count falling from 60 to 58 as of Q2 2026, the value-trap risk outweighs the cheap multiple.
What could go wrong
- Oversold bounce. Stock is down roughly 67–68% YTD and about 91% off its December 2024 high per recent news; a technical rebound or short-covering could materialize even on weak fundamentals.
- Insider signal. CEO acquired 7M shares via options at $14.97 on 14 Sep and multiple executives received stock awards the same day, which could signal management confidence in a floor near current prices.
- FCF resilience. FY2025 FCF margin of 27.5% and $795.7M in free cash flow provide a financial cushion that could support the stock if revenue stabilizes.
- Acquisition speculation. At 1.9x price-to-sales versus a peer median of 6.1x, TTD could attract strategic or private-equity interest, capping downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · news, 17 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on TTD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 76.3% over twelve months, from $53.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $12.70 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $53.61 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 76.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 149.2M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TTD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $590.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $565.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $504.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $350.4M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $308.3M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $291.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $248.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $243.5M | 0.0% |
| Alyeska Investment Group | $201.0M | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $178.1M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 235 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $134.6M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TTD
Orin answers questions about TTD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.1× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 2.01× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.3×below usual | 16.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 41.3× to 408× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 6.29× to 36.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 23.2× to 262× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $14.68 (from $6 to $25) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$14.68
$6 – $25 · +16% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 32.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc. | $6B | 15.1× | 6.9× | 76.9% | 13.6% | 16% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $31B | 32.2× | 16.8× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $30B | 28.7× | 14.2× | 9.2% | 2.9% | 74% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | $21B | 21.9× | 14.6× | 82.8% | 37.8% | n/m |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $16B | 49.6× | 28.4× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
| VRSNVeriSign, Inc. | $27B | 32.7× | 23.8× | 88.6% | 49.1% | n/m |
- PTC, VRSN: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $35 a share — 176% above the $12.70 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $35 | 176% above $12.70 |
| Levered | $39 | 209% above $12.70 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.