Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Take-Two Interactive offers an asymmetric setup near $205.28 with Grand Theft Auto VI launching November 19 — a franchise-defining catalyst that Jefferies argues could drive shares to $300, representing roughly 50% upside from current levels.
FY2026 fundamentals improved meaningfully, with revenue of $6.66B (up 18.2% YoY), free cash flow swinging to +$461.5M, and total debt cut from $4.1B to $2.96B, yet the stock is down over 20% year-to-date and trades at a P/S of 5.74x versus a peer median of 8.39x. The risk is that Q1 FY2027's weak 2.0% revenue growth and EPS miss (actual -$0.18 vs. estimate $0.327), combined with persistent insider selling of approximately $340M net over 24 months, signal the pre-launch lull is deeper than expected.
What could go wrong
- GTA VI execution. The Nov 19 launch could slip or underwhelm critically and commercially; the entire thesis hinges on this single release delivering blockbuster results.
- Pre-launch operating losses. FY2026 operating income was -$108.6M and Q1 FY2027 operating loss was -$35.5M; the company remains unprofitable on an operating basis heading into the launch.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders executed 140 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions, netting approximately -1.53M shares worth about $340M — a continued negative signal.
- Weakening institutional sentiment. The smart money score declined from 0.08 (as of 30 Sep 2024) to 0.011 (as of 30 Jun), suggesting institutional conviction has faded ahead of the catalyst.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 16 Oct · FY26 fundamentals · Q1 FY27 results · earnings vs estimates, 7 Aug. Orin's read on TTWO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 20.8% over twelve months, from $254.27 on 27 Oct 2025 to $201.28 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $258.41 on 6 Jul 2026; the last close is 22.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.1M, on 30 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TTWO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.7B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $844.0M | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $840.6M | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $813.2M | 0.3% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 208 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$340.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 36 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TTWO
Orin answers questions about TTWO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 5.63× its yearly sales — above its usual level (5.07×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 42.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 5.63×above usual | 5.07× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.3×near usual | 30.6× | — |
| P/B | 10.4× | — | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 2.1× to 17.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $292 (from $270 to $313) — 45% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$292
$270 – $313 · +45% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 41.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | $38B | lost money | 31.3× | 56.0% | −4.8% | −9% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $63B | 239× | 166× | 79.6% | 6.1% | 6% |
| EAElectronic Arts Inc. | $53B | 48.4× | 29.8× | 79.9% | 13.8% | 17% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $56B | 29.6× | 21.8× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $152B | 33.9× | 27.1× | 50.4% | 31.9% | 245% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | $45B | 131× | 31.2× | 46.4% | 1.4% | 2% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.