Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. TTWO
Take-Two remains a buy into the November 19 GTA VI launch, with FY2026 revenue of $6.66B growing 18.2% YoY and free cash flow swinging to +$461.5M from -$214.6M, while management reaffirmed FY27 net bookings guidance of $8–$8.2B against that $6.66B revenue base. The stock's pullback to $232.93—below its 50-day moving average of $241.41—reflects GTA VI leak-driven noise rather than fundamental deterioration, and at 6.5x sales versus a peer median of 9.6x the market is underpricing the upcoming revenue inflection.
Wedbush's $300 target and 25x FY2028 EPS framing suggest meaningful upside if GTA VI delivers on unprecedented preorder demand.
What could go wrong
- GTA VI launch slippage. A delay beyond the November 19 launch date would undercut the entire FY27 net bookings guidance of $8–$8.2B and the revenue inflection thesis.
- Persistent operating losses. FY2026 operating income was -$108.6M despite 18.2% revenue growth, meaning the company is still not profitable at the operating line ahead of its biggest catalyst.
- Heavy insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 1,215,251 shares worth $337.6M with no cluster buying, and recent August 2026 transactions show continued disposition activity.
- Technical deterioration. MACD histogram at -1.39 and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $241.41 signal near-term momentum weakness that could deepen if leak-related sentiment worsens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31; derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2026 vs FY2025 · Zacks news article, 2026-08-10 · Technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on TTWO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TTWO filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 22 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G | 17 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 7 Aug | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | read |
| DEF 14A | 27 Jul | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | read |
| 10-K | 21 May | For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 21 May | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 194 Form 4 filings, net −$338.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 42 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TTWO
Orin answers questions about TTWO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 40.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 5.77× | 5.07× | — |
| P/B | 10.6× | 4.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.78σ from its own mean).
27.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$290
$270 – $313 · +40% against today's price
- 46 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | $39B | — | 40.7× | 56.0% | -4.8% | -9% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $90B | — | 343.2× | 79.5% | 4.5% | 5% |
| EAElectronic Arts Inc. | $53B | 48.4× | 29.8× | 79.9% | 13.8% | 17% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $55B | 29.5× | 22.1× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $67B | 82.7× | 64.8× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $59B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $207B | 63.5× | 49.2× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $163B | 17.4× | 18.7× | 48.9% | 72.9% | 119% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | $44B | 131.0× | 37.4× | 46.4% | 1.4% | 2% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-129 | $210.71 · −161% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-9 | $210.71 · −104% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.