Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN
TXN's cyclical recovery is accelerating — FY2025 revenue grew 13% to $17.68B with FCF nearly doubling to $2.6B as capex moderated to $4.55B, and recent reporting confirms Analog segment revenue surged 26% YoY with management implementing the first broad price increases in years. Smart money conviction has jumped sharply, with the institutional score rising to 0.297 as of Q2 2026 from 0.013 in Q4 2025 and fund count expanding from 60 to 68, signaling coordinated accumulation by sophisticated investors.
At $258.64 the stock trades at a 15% PE discount to the peer median of 46x with RSI at 38.3 (oversold), offering an attractive entry point for a cyclical upturn where margins at 57% gross and 34% operating remain well below the 2022 peaks of 69% and 51%, leaving significant earnings leverage as utilization improves.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Gross margin at 57% in FY2025 remains far below the 68.8% peak in 2022; if pricing power or utilization gains disappoint, the earnings recovery thesis weakens considerably.
- Elevated debt and capex burden. Total debt has climbed to $15.39B from $9.5B in 2022 to fund the capacity build, and capex of $4.55B in FY2025 continues to constrain FCF relative to the $5.9B generated in 2022.
- Cyclical downturn resumption. The industrial and automotive recovery described in recent news could falter if macro conditions deteriorate, reversing the revenue growth and pricing momentum.
- Technical weakness persists. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $285.89 with bearish MACD (histogram -0.77), suggesting near-term selling pressure that could extend before a durable bottom forms.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy 0.1305 · FMP FY2025 free_cash_flow $2,603M vs FY2024 $1,498M · FMP FY2025 capital_expenditure -$4,550M vs FY2024 -$4,820M · derived_metrics FY2025 gross_margin 0.5702; FY2022 gross_margin 0.6876. Orin's read on TXN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TXN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $13.3B | 0.4% of fund |
| Invesco | $11.3B | 0.9% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $9.3B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $8.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.1B | 0.4% of fund |
159 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 192 Form 4 filings, net $24.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TXN
Orin answers questions about TXN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 41.2× | 23.8× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.5× | 18.2× | — |
| P/S | 12.80× | 8.92× | — |
| P/B | 13.8× | 10.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.29σ from its own mean).
29.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$325
$225 – $405 · +22% against today's price
- 31 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.00T | 156.0× | 93.4× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.69T | 44.0× | 33.0× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| LSCCLattice Semiconductor Corporation | $17B | 460.0× | 190.8× | 67.7% | 5.6% | 5% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $41B | 104.7× | 27.4× | 60.2% | 8.8% | 7% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $67B | 82.7× | 64.8× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $228B | 85.6× | 48.3× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $59B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $29B | 46.9× | 23.6× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $11B | 27.5× | 13.8× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
The median is of the 12 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $53 | $283.09 · −81% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $40 | $283.09 · −86% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.