Texas Instruments Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
TXN's analog-cycle recovery is accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.8% YoY to $5.46B with EPS of $2.14 beating estimates by 12%, following a 23.5% EPS surprise in Q1 2026 — but the stock at $277.78 trades at 42x FY2025 EPS of $5.45, well below the 2022 peak EPS of $9.41, pricing in a margin recovery that has not yet materialized (gross margin of 57% vs the 2022 peak of 68.8%).
The MACD histogram turned negative at -1.64 as of 20 Oct and insiders have been persistent net sellers ($103.6M of net dispositions over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions), both suggesting near-term caution ahead of the Oct 22 earnings report where TXN needs roughly $437M in additional quarterly sales to hit guidance midpoint. The fundamental direction is positive and the PE sits at a 12.2% discount to the peer median of 47.9x, but the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Capex overhang suppressing FCF. FY2025 capex of $4.55B consumed the bulk of $7.15B operating cash flow, leaving FCF of only $2.6B and an FCF margin of 14.7% — far below the 2021 peak of 34.3% — with total debt rising to $15.39B from $9.50B in 2022.
- Margin recovery slower than priced in. Gross margin of 57.0% in FY2025 remains well below the 68.8% peak in 2022; if the analog rebound stalls or capex fails to deliver expected utilization, the 42x PE on depressed earnings offers little margin of safety.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders disposed a net 397,953 shares worth $103.6M with zero open-market acquisitions, including recent option-exercise-and-sell transactions by SVP Abraham Tsedeniya in August 2026.
- Earnings event risk. TXN reports after the close on Oct 22; Wells Fargo cut its price target ahead of the print, and the stock needs roughly $437M in incremental quarterly sales to reach guidance midpoint, making a miss or soft guide a sharp downside catalyst.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals and peer comparison, 20 Oct · insider trades. Orin's read on TXN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 82.3% over twelve months, from $169.41 on 27 Oct 2025 to $308.91 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $332.28 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 7.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.8M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TXN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $24.6B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.7B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $13.3B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $11.3B | 0.9% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $9.3B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $8.8B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.1B | 0.4% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $6.3B | 0.8% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $4.5B | 0.7% |
| Norges Bank | $3.9B | 0.4% |
161 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 192 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$103.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 16 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TXN
Orin answers questions about TXN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 40.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.9×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.0×above usual | 23.9× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 13.6×above usual | 8.92× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.6×above usual | 18.2× | — |
| P/B | 14.7×above usual | 10.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $334 (from $250 to $405) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$334
$250 – $405 · +8% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 40.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 48.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | $560M | lost money | n/m | 22.6% | −6.9% | −6% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | $6B | 13.5× | 9.1× | 53.1% | 20.2% | 19% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $35B | 101× | 21.3× | 62.7% | 14.0% | 12% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| POWIPower Integrations, Inc. | $2B | 48.0× | 30.2× | 53.9% | 9.8% | 7% |
| VSHVishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $3B | 31.6× | 6.4× | 22.2% | 2.4% | 4% |
- AOSL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AOSL: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 40.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now40.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $46 a share — 85% below the $307.51 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $46 | 85% below $307.51 |
| Levered | $34 | 89% below $307.51 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.