Textron Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Textron is a buy at $73.03, trading at a 26.6% P/E discount to peers (14.25x vs. 19.43x median) and a 33.7% EV/EBITDA discount (9.04x vs. 13.64x), with RSI at 26.37 signaling deeply oversold conditions after a sharp decline from the $90+ range.
FY2026 results showed 8.0% revenue growth to $14.8B and 18.0% EPS growth to $5.11, supported by an $18.8B backlog and a new 25M share buyback authorization following $822M in 2025 repurchases. The company has beaten EPS estimates in seven consecutive quarters, and with Q3 2026 results due October 29, the combination of extreme oversold technicals, deep valuation discount, and consistent execution creates an asymmetric setup. Gross margin compression from 20.8% in FY2024 to 18.2% in FY2026 remains a concern but appears already discounted in the stock price.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin declined from 20.8% in FY2024 to 18.2% in FY2026 and operating margin from 7.7% to 6.8%, suggesting cost pressures or mix shifts that could persist and erode earnings power.
- Downtrend acceleration. Stock at $73.03 is well below both the 50-day MA ($82.01) and 200-day MA ($89.42), with MACD histogram negative at -0.130, indicating the downtrend may not be exhausted despite oversold RSI.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 325,233 shares for $31.5M, with only 1 open-market acquisition versus 11 dispositions, suggesting limited insider confidence at higher prices.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 FY2027 revenue growth slowed to 3.0% YoY from 11.8% in Q1 FY2027, raising questions about whether the 8% full-year growth rate is sustainable.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · technicals, 7 Oct · FY26 fundamentals · fundamentals. Orin's read on TXT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 2.8% over twelve months, from $80.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $78.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $100.77 on 20 Feb 2026; the last close is 22.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.4M, on 28 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All TXT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $901.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $781.0M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $678.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $480.6M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $422.7M | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $238.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $217.3M | 0.0% |
81 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 77 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$31.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TXT
Orin answers questions about TXT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.8×below usual | 17.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.88×below usual | 1.17× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3×below usual | 11.7× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×below usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $90.50 (from $86 to $95) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$90.50
$86 – $95 · +16% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.8× | 9.3× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $133B | 17.6× | 14.1× | 9.4% | 8.1% | 127% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| GEGE Aerospace | $309B | 34.2× | 24.9× | 35.2% | 17.3% | 51% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $48B | 26.0× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $144B | 22.0× | 15.1× | 11.7% | 8.2% | 79% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $78B | 17.4× | 12.3× | 20.0% | 10.4% | 26% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $99 a share — 26% above the $78.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $99 | 26% above $78.16 |
| Levered | $107 | 37% above $78.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.