Tyler Technologies, Inc. TYL
Tyler Technologies remains a hold after Q2 2026 results showed record SaaS bookings and 21.7% SaaS revenue growth, but overall topline decelerated to roughly 8.2% and the stock still trades at 42.0x trailing earnings—166% above the peer median of 15.8x—despite a ~30% YTD decline. Fundamentals through FY2025 are genuinely improving (operating margin expanded from 11.2% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2025; FCF of $637.5M at a 27.3% margin), but insiders have been net sellers at -$44.5M over 24 months with no cluster buying, and smart money is essentially neutral at a 0.0036 score as of 2026-06-30.
The stock has stabilized above its 50-day MA ($306.60) with positive MACD momentum, yet still sits below the 200-day MA ($364.37), reflecting an unfinished turnaround story at a premium valuation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 42.0x P/E and 28.6x EV/EBITDA—166% and 128% above peer medians respectively—any further growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction with limited downside protection.
- Revenue deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth of 9.1% decelerated from 9.5% in FY2024, and Q2 2026 reportedly came in at ~8.2% growth, missing expectations; SaaS strength has not yet translated into accelerating total revenue.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insiders recorded 168 dispositions versus 96 acquisitions for net value of -$44.5M, with no cluster buying signal.
- Margin sustainability. A Seeking Alpha downgrade cited falling adjusted EBITDA margins in Q2 2026, which if persistent could undermine the margin-expansion thesis driving the premium multiple.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2023 and FY2025 · peer_relative composite · MarketBeat news article 2026-08-01. Orin's read on TYL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TYL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $806.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $781.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $618.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $596.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $578.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $469.1M | 0.0% of fund |
81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 270 Form 4 filings, net −$51.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TYL
Orin answers questions about TYL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.6× | 93.4× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.7× | 46.1× | — |
| P/S | 5.60× | 9.00× | — |
| P/B | 4.6× | 6.0× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.10σ from its own mean).
8.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$414
$340 – $455 · +24% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $14B | 43.6× | 29.7× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
| CDWCDW Corporation | $19B | 17.5× | 13.3× | 21.4% | 4.6% | 43% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $29B | 46.9× | 23.6× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | $16B | 13.5× | 10.4× | 84.1% | 41.4% | 33% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $14B | — | 57.3× | 68.4% | -2.8% | -2% |
| TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc. | $6B | 15.1× | 6.6× | 83.0% | 13.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 167.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $400 | $311.88 · +28% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $541 | $311.88 · +73% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.