United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
United Airlines trades at 9.12x trailing earnings — roughly 52% below the peer median of 19.09 — while Q3 2026 revenue surged 17.4% YoY to $17.88B and the stock sits deeply oversold at an RSI of 29.9 as of 19 Oct.
Operating margin compressed from 8.9% in FY2024 to 8.0% in FY2025 as fuel costs rise, and the latest earnings report showed a slight EPS miss of $2.54 versus $2.57 estimated. The balance sheet continues to strengthen with total debt declining from $36.74B in FY2023 to $31.04B in FY2025, and the deep valuation discount alongside accelerating top-line growth supports a buy despite near-term margin headwinds.
What could go wrong
- Fuel cost squeeze. Holiday fares are surging (Thanksgiving up 31%, Christmas up 23%) but rising fuel costs are outpacing fare increases, pressuring margins.
- Operating margin compression. Operating margin fell from 8.9% in FY2024 to 8.0% in FY2025, and FCF declined from $3.83B to $2.56B over the same period.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net sold 594,217 shares for $66.0M, with the EVP & CCO selling shares as recently as August 2026.
- Downtrend intact. Stock at $95.60 trades below both the 50-day MA of $111.20 and 200-day MA of $108.64, with a bearish MACD histogram of -1.41 as of 19 Oct.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · quarterly results · technicals · fundamentals. Orin's read on UAL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 6.0% over twelve months, from $98.80 on 27 Oct 2025 to $104.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $136.11 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 23.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.4M, on 9 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All UAL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.5B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Par Capital Management | $728.9M | 18.1% |
| Citadel Advisors | $589.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $550.6M | 0.0% |
109 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 201 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$66.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UAL
Orin answers questions about UAL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 10.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6×below usual | 10.5× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 0.52×below usual | 0.57× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2×below usual | 8.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×below usual | 2.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $155 (from $125 to $190) — 48% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$155
$125 – $190 · +48% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DAL 16.2×, LUV 20.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $34B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 65.7% | 5.5% | 22% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $54B | 16.2× | 9.3× | 29.9% | 4.6% | 15% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. | $21B | 20.6× | 8.1× | 55.7% | 3.3% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $232 a share — 124% above the $103.53 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $232 | 124% above $103.53 |
| Levered | $236 | 128% above $103.53 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.