Uber Technologies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hold Uber — the fundamental story remains solid with FY2025 operating margin expanding to 10.7% from 6.4% a year earlier and free cash flow margin of 18.8%, but Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated to 12.2% YoY from 20.1% in Q4 2025, signaling a material slowdown that aligns with news commentary citing 'robotaxi fears and weak guidance.' The stock trades at 15.2x trailing P/E — a 91% discount to the peer median of 169.7x — which limits downside, but with shares below both the 50-day ($73.10) and 200-day ($74.21) moving averages and roughly 30% off the 52-week high per recent news, there is no clear technical catalyst for re-rating near term.
Improving smart money positioning (score rising to 0.17 as of Q2 2026 from -0.20 in Q1 2026) and attractive relative valuation argue for holding existing positions rather than adding aggressively until growth reaccelerates.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 12.2% YoY is the slowest in the provided quarterly series, down from 20%+ in Q3/Q4 2025; if this continues, the margin expansion narrative may not be enough to support the stock.
- Robotaxi/AV competitive threat. Recent news explicitly cites 'robotaxi fears' as a factor battering the stock, suggesting market concern that autonomous vehicles could erode Uber's core Mobility marketplace over time.
- Competitive pressure from Lyft. Lyft is launching a new business-travel brand ('Alcove') targeting the premium segment, escalating rivalry in Uber's core domestic ridesharing market.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $70.35 sits below both its 50-day ($73.10) and 200-day ($74.21) moving averages with an RSI of 48.4, indicating lack of upward momentum; a break below recent lows could accelerate selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 and Q4 2025 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on UBER; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 31.8% over twelve months, from $96.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $65.78 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $99.72 on 3 Nov 2025; the last close is 34.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 64.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All UBER filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.6B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.4B | 1.3% |
| State Street | $6.5B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.3B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Pershing Square | $2.5B | 12.7% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $1.7B | 0.1% |
167 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 873 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $11.9M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UBER
Orin answers questions about UBER from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 40.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.5× | — | 39.5× |
| P/S | 2.49×below usual | 3.28× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.1×below usual | 6.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 12.8× to 68.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 24.4× to 239× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $105 (from $74 to $150) — 59% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$105
$74 – $150 · +59% against the last close
- 34 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 40.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (ABNB 31.4×, UHAL 164×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $140B | 40.5× | 24.2× | 43.2% | 6.1% | 13% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $102B | 31.4× | 29.4× | 78.5% | 23.0% | 39% |
| UHALU-Haul Holding Company | $10B | 164× | 10.2× | 72.7% | 1.4% | 1% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 40.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now40.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $115 a share — 74% above the $65.96 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $115 | 74% above $65.96 |
| Levered | $103 | 56% above $65.96 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.