Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER
Uber's FY2025 results show a company hitting its stride — revenue of $52.0B (+18.3% YoY), operating income of $5.57B (doubling FY2024's $2.80B), and $9.76B in free cash flow at an 18.8% FCF margin — yet the stock trades at just 16.9x trailing earnings versus a 33.1x peer median, a roughly 49% discount. Since the prior hold at $68.18, conditions have improved materially: the stock has reclaimed its 50-day MA ($72.55) to close at $78.04 with a bullish MACD histogram (+0.48) and healthy RSI (60.6), smart money scores turned positive to 0.185 as of Q2 2026 from -0.114 in Q4 2025, and the AV platform strategy is expanding with Baidu's Apollo Go live in Dubai and the first European autonomous rides launching in Zagreb.
With Q2 earnings beating expectations per recent coverage and the AV partnership moat widening, the risk/reward now favors accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Net income growth stalling. FY2025 net income of $10.05B grew only 2% YoY versus FY2024's $9.86B, despite operating income doubling — suggesting below-the-line items or tax effects are masking operating leverage, and EPS growth of just 3.7% may not support multiple expansion.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net acquired 1.23M shares but on a value basis net sold $17.67M, with 457 dispositions versus 263 acquisitions — a persistent sell bias among management.
- 200-day MA resistance. The stock at $78.04 is essentially at its 200-day MA of $77.29; failure to hold above this level could signal the recovery from $68 is exhausted and a retest of lows is possible.
- AV monetization timeline. Autonomous partnerships in Dubai and Zagreb are early-stage launches with limited revenue contribution; if AV rollout stalls or partner economics disappoint, the strategic premium embedded in the thesis deflates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy 0.1828 · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual; derived_metrics operating_margin 0.107 · FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics fcf_margin 0.1877 · peer_relative pe 16.86, peer_median_pe 33.15, pe_vs_median_pct -49.15. Orin's read on UBER; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UBER filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.4B | 1.3% of fund |
| State Street | $6.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
164 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 796 Form 4 filings, net −$5.6M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.0× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.56× | 3.28× | — |
| P/B | 5.2× | 6.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.38σ from its own mean).
3.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$105
$74 – $150 · +50% against today's price
- 52 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $106B | 24.1× | 19.3× | 88.5% | 64.6% | 193% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $195B | 21.6× | 14.4× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 53.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $145 | $69.55 · +108% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $130 | $69.55 · +87% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.