Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. UCTT
Ultra Clean's Q2 2026 results confirm a genuine operating inflection — record quarterly revenue, EPS of $0.70 beating the $0.52 consensus and up from $0.27 a year ago, with Q3 guidance above Q2 levels on AI-driven semiconductor capex — but the stock has corrected sharply from July highs near $130 to $73.32 as of 2026-08-25, sitting below the 50-day MA of $96.81 and approaching the 200-day MA of $65.37. The FY2025 legacy is heavy: a $181.2M net loss, total debt of $810.3M against $711M equity, and an operating margin of just 2.13%, while the P/S of 1.50x is roughly 59% below the peer median of 3.62x.
The improving fundamental trajectory and discounted valuation are offset by elevated leverage, thin free cash flow ($15.3M in FY2025), persistent insider net selling ($15.7M over 24 months), and bearish technicals, warranting a hold until profitability and cash generation are demonstrably sustained.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $810.3M against stockholders' equity of $711M as of FY2025 leaves little room for error if the AI-driven capex cycle stalls or customer orders push out.
- Margin recovery fragility. FY2025 gross margin of 15.72% and operating margin of 2.13% remain well below FY2021 levels of 20.46% and 8.83% respectively; any cost inflation or mix shift could stall the margin rebound.
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $15.7M in value with 141 dispositions versus 45 acquisitions, including recent CAO and CFO sales at prices ranging from $86 to $130.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $73.32 is below the 50-day MA of $96.81 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.77 and RSI of 40.45; a break below the 200-day MA of $65.37 could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-03 · Zacks earnings call coverage, 2026-08-04 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-26 · Derived metrics, FY2025. Orin's read on UCTT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UCTT filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 14 Aug | Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 6 Aug | Effective August 5, 2026, Sheri Savage ceased to serve as Chief Financial Officer and resigned from all officer positions. | read |
| 10-Q | 4 Aug | Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Aug | Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Jul | Michael Keogh will become Chief Financial Officer effective August 5, 2026. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $445.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $393.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $367.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $272.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $257.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $187.9M | 0.0% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings, net −$16.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 47 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UCTT
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 32.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.58× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.5× | — | — |
41.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$123
$115 – $130 · +60% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc. | $3B | — | 32.9× | 15.8% | -1.1% | -3% |
| AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | $829M | — | — | 22.3% | -6.2% | -0% |
| COHUCohu, Inc. | $3B | — | 138.6× | 39.2% | -7.4% | -5% |
| INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc. | $649M | — | — | 21.5% | -65.2% | -45% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | $8B | — | — | 57.4% | -18.2% | -22% |
| PLABPhotronics, Inc. | $2B | 10.6× | 3.7× | 33.7% | 19.0% | 13% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.