Orin
UCTTNasdaq·Semiconductors

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. UCTT

Market cap $3.4BP/E no earnings to divide byGross margin 15.8%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$77.29
+0.74 (+0.97%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $21.49 – $144.22
Watch
Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 26 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Ultra Clean's Q2 2026 results confirm a genuine operating inflection — record quarterly revenue, EPS of $0.70 beating the $0.52 consensus and up from $0.27 a year ago, with Q3 guidance above Q2 levels on AI-driven semiconductor capex — but the stock has corrected sharply from July highs near $130 to $73.32 as of 2026-08-25, sitting below the 50-day MA of $96.81 and approaching the 200-day MA of $65.37. The FY2025 legacy is heavy: a $181.2M net loss, total debt of $810.3M against $711M equity, and an operating margin of just 2.13%, while the P/S of 1.50x is roughly 59% below the peer median of 3.62x.

The improving fundamental trajectory and discounted valuation are offset by elevated leverage, thin free cash flow ($15.3M in FY2025), persistent insider net selling ($15.7M over 24 months), and bearish technicals, warranting a hold until profitability and cash generation are demonstrably sustained.

What could go wrong

  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $810.3M against stockholders' equity of $711M as of FY2025 leaves little room for error if the AI-driven capex cycle stalls or customer orders push out.
  • Margin recovery fragility. FY2025 gross margin of 15.72% and operating margin of 2.13% remain well below FY2021 levels of 20.46% and 8.83% respectively; any cost inflation or mix shift could stall the margin rebound.
  • Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $15.7M in value with 141 dispositions versus 45 acquisitions, including recent CAO and CFO sales at prices ranging from $86 to $130.
  • Technical breakdown. Stock at $73.32 is below the 50-day MA of $96.81 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.77 and RSI of 40.45; a break below the 200-day MA of $65.37 could trigger further selling.

What would change my mind

Sustained positive FCF and margin expansion. Q3 2026 results show operating margin above 5% and positive free cash flow generation, confirming the Q2 inflection is durablebullish
Debt reduction. Total debt declines meaningfully from $810.3M through amortization or refinancing, improving leverage and financial flexibilitybullish
Semiconductor capex cycle slowdown. AI-driven customer orders decelerate or are delayed, causing Q3 or Q4 revenue guidance to fall below Q2 levelsbearish
Technical support failure. Stock closes below the 200-day MA of $65.37 on heavy volume, signaling loss of institutional supportbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-03 · Zacks earnings call coverage, 2026-08-04 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-26 · Derived metrics, FY2025. Orin's read on UCTT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Invesco$445.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$393.2M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$367.9M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$272.2M0.0% of fund
State Street$257.0M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$187.9M0.0% of fund

74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings, net −$16.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 47 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about UCTT

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about UCTT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days

Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA32.9×
P/S1.58×
P/B5.5×
What the price assumes

41.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

12 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$123

$115$130 · +60% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 4 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 10.6× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.$3B32.9×15.8%-1.1%-3%
AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited$829M22.3%-6.2%-0%
COHUCohu, Inc.$3B138.6×39.2%-7.4%-5%
INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc.$649M21.5%-65.2%-45%
MXLMaxLinear, Inc.$8B57.4%-18.2%-22%
PLABPhotronics, Inc.$2B10.6×3.7×33.7%19.0%13%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 23.8×FY24 68.9×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $77.29
52-week range$21 – $144
Analyst targets$115 – $130

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.