UDR, Inc. UDR
UDR remains a hold despite a sharp selloff from approximately $39 to $33.79 that has pushed RSI to an extremely oversold 22.9 and left the stock trading below both its 50-day ($37.36) and 200-day ($37.05) moving averages. The P/E of 21.39 sits at a 35% discount to the peer median of 32.94, and Q2 2026 results beat estimates with management raising full-year 2026 guidance, but Q2 2026 revenue was flat year-over-year at $425.4M and net insider selling of 551K shares over 24 months — including CEO Toomey's 80K-share sale at $39.25 — tempers enthusiasm.
Smart money has turned slightly negative at -0.0092 as of Q2 2026, and refinancing risk on the $6.19B debt load remains a headwind, making the risk/reward insufficient for a buy despite the oversold technical setup.
What could go wrong
- Revenue stagnation. Q2 2026 revenue of $425.4M was flat year-over-year (0.0% growth), and full-year 2025 revenue growth was only 2.42%, suggesting the multifamily rental market may be losing momentum.
- Refinancing risk. Total debt of $6.19B against equity of $3.29B creates significant refinancing exposure if interest rates remain elevated, pressuring future AFFO and dividend coverage.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 551K shares over 24 months, including the CEO's $3.1M sale at $39.25 in June 2026, signal limited insider confidence at recent price levels.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated from 0.0166 in Q1 2026 to -0.0092 in Q2 2026, with fund count stable at 56, indicating institutional positioning has turned slightly bearish.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals as of 2026-09-23 · peer_relative · quarterly_results Q2 2026 · insider transactions. Orin's read on UDR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UDR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $810.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $773.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $562.3M | 0.0% of fund |
69 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 41 Form 4 filings, net −$1.6M. Of the 41 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UDR
Orin answers questions about UDR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.4× | 120.1× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8× | 19.4× | — |
| P/S | 6.33× | 8.21× | — |
| P/B | 3.7× | 3.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.35σ from its own mean).
6.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$42
$38 – $46 · +23% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDRUDR, Inc. | $11B | 21.4× | 12.8× | 55.7% | 30.4% | 16% |
| BXPBXP, Inc. | $10B | 33.5× | 13.8× | 46.8% | 8.4% | 6% |
| CPTCamden Property Trust | $10B | 32.3× | 13.2× | 22.3% | 20.7% | 8% |
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $15B | 15.1× | 8.9× | 15.8% | 16.5% | 16% |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.4× | 15.4× | 47.3% | 18.2% | 7% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $35 | $39.41 · −12% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $22 | $39.41 · −43% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.