UDR, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
UDR trades at a 36.5% P/E discount to the residential REIT peer median (21.8x vs 34.3x) and a 15.4% EV/EBITDA discount, but the valuation gap is justified by anemic revenue growth — Q2 2026 revenue was flat year-over-year at $425.4M and Q1 2026 grew just 0.9% — alongside a heavy $6.19B debt load and declining stockholders' equity from $3.44B to $3.29B.
The stock has recovered from its prior oversold condition (RSI now 50.4 vs the prior 22.9) but remains below both its 50-day ($35.38) and 200-day ($36.85) moving averages, and CEO Toomey's 80K-share sale at $39.25 in June 2026 with no offsetting insider buying tempers conviction. With Q3 2026 earnings due November 2, the risk/reward is balanced enough to warrant waiting for confirmation that revenue growth is reaccelerating before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Stagnant revenue growth. Q2 2026 revenue was flat YoY at $425.4M and Q1 2026 grew only 0.9%, well below the 7.3% FY2023 growth rate, suggesting multifamily pricing power has stalled.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $6.19B against stockholders' equity of $3.29B as of FY2025, with equity declining from $3.44B in FY2024, raises refinancing risk in a higher-rate environment.
- Insider selling. Net insider disposition of 80,000 shares over 24 months including CEO Toomey's sale at $39.25, with zero open-market acquisitions.
- Technical overhead resistance. Stock at $34.41 sits below both the 50-day MA ($35.38) and 200-day MA ($36.85), limiting near-term upside without a catalyst.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on UDR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 1.1% over twelve months, from $36.01 on 27 Oct 2025 to $35.61 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $41.24 on 7 Jul 2026; the last close is 13.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 31.3M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All UDR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $810.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $773.9M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $562.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $553.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $346.3M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $250.6M | 0.0% |
71 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 41 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.1M. Of the 41 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UDR
Orin answers questions about UDR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.5× | — | 42.4× |
| P/S | 6.67×below usual | 8.21× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2×below usual | 19.4× | — |
| P/B | 3.9×above usual | 3.7× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 28.6× to 167× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $40.91 (from $36 to $46) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$40.91
$36 – $46 · +15% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 42.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDRUDR, Inc. | $11B | 22.5× | 13.2× | n/a | 30.4% | 16% |
| ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc. | $18B | 50.8× | 14.3× | n/a | 12.7% | 5% |
| INVHInvitation Homes Inc. | $16B | 24.9× | 14.1× | n/a | 23.1% | 7% |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.7× | 15.4× | n/a | 18.2% | 7% |
| VMRKEquity Residential | $24B | 233× | 10.8× | n/a | −4.2% | −1% |
- UDR, ESS, INVH, MAA, VMRK: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $30 a share — 15% below the $35.60 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $30 | 15% below $35.60 |
| Levered | $19 | 48% below $35.60 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.