UGI Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
UGI trades at a steep discount to regulated-gas peers — 12.3x P/E versus a 16.1x median and 9.4x EV/EBITDA versus 11.8x — reflecting a market still skeptical of the turnaround despite FY2025 EPS recovering to $3.09 from the FY2023 trough of -$7.16.
The unsolicited $9 billion KKR buyout bid reported in August 2026 provides tangible takeover optionality, and the stock has recovered to $38.43, above both the 50-day ($37.18) and 200-day ($36.61) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram. However, the most recent completed quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended 30 Jun) posted a $133 million net loss and the latest earnings surprise was a miss, while insiders remain net sellers over the trailing 24 months. The setup is balanced between cheap valuation plus deal optionality and uneven operational execution.
What could go wrong
- KKR bid fails. If the $9 billion unsolicited KKR offer is rejected or withdrawn, the stock could lose the takeover premium and re-rate toward fundamental value given weak recent quarters.
- AmeriGas deterioration. Q3 FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) showed a $133 million net loss and revenue declined 4.5% year-over-year, suggesting continued operational weakness in the propane segment.
- Earnings misses persist. Three of the last four earnings surprises were misses, including the most recent quarter where actual EPS of -$0.20 missed the estimated -$0.08.
- Insider selling. Insiders have been net sellers over 24 months with net dispositions of 93,403 shares valued at approximately $3.47 million, with no cluster buying detected.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · fundamentals · quarterly results · news, 18 Aug. Orin's read on UGI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.5% over twelve months, from $33.98 on 27 Oct 2025 to $39.26 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $40.63 on 28 Jan 2026; the last close is 3.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.2M, on 18 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All UGI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $914.1M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $483.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $435.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $333.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $239.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $157.0M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $122.2M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $119.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $105.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $96.6M | 0.0% |
74 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 93 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UGI
Orin answers questions about UGI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 8.4×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.6×above usual | 8.4× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 1.15×above usual | 0.73× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5×above usual | 7.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×above usual | 1.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $45 (from $43 to $46) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$45
$43 – $46 · +15% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGIUGI Corporation | $8B | 12.6× | 9.5× | 46.7% | 9.2% | 13% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corporation | $30B | 20.6× | 14.7× | 61.0% | 28.5% | 10% |
| BKHBlack Hills Corporation | $6B | 20.2× | — | 49.9% | 13.5% | n/m |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 22.2× | 9.2× | 36.3% | 15.1% | 9% |
| MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4B | 19.9× | 11.8× | 41.4% | 10.3% | 7% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | $5B | 14.6× | 11.7× | 28.3% | 16.4% | 14% |
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 16.8× | 10.0× | 54.4% | 9.7% | 8% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | $5B | 16.8× | 10.6× | 74.6% | 12.5% | 8% |
| SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P. | $1B | 9.1× | 9.1× | 32.2% | 9.4% | 19% |
| SRSpire Inc. | $5B | 9.6× | 14.1× | 32.7% | 21.6% | 16% |
| SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $7B | 25.1× | 12.6× | 65.3% | 15.2% | 6% |
- BKH: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $4 a share — 89% below the $39.18 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $4 | 89% below $39.18 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.