UGI Corporation UGI
UGI's fundamentals are genuinely improving — FY2025 EPS recovered to $3.09 from the FY2023 trough of -$7.16, operating margin expanded to 15.2%, and the stock trades at a discount to peers (12.4x P/E vs 15.1x median, 9.4x EV/EBITDA vs 11.3x). However, the August 18 KKR $9 billion unsolicited buyout offer has already driven shares to $38.55 with RSI at 69.2 — above both the 50-day ($35.57) and 200-day ($36.46) moving averages — pricing in most of the deal premium.
With an implied offer near $41 per share (based on ~219M shares outstanding from FY2025 net income of $678M and EPS of $3.09), the remaining upside to the bid is roughly 6%, while downside risk if the deal collapses is substantial given elevated leverage of $7.56B debt against $4.78B equity and thin FCF of $390M. Hold pending deal developments; the risk/reward at current levels is balanced.
What could go wrong
- Deal collapse risk. The KKR offer is unsolicited and non-binding; if UGI's board rejects it or KKR walks, shares could retrace sharply toward pre-bid levels near the $35–36 range, erasing the takeover premium.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $7.56B against equity of $4.78B (FY2025) constrains financial flexibility and could deter competing bidders or pressure the stock if deal uncertainty persists.
- Seasonal LPG weakness. Q3 2026 reportable segment EBIT fell to $58M from $72M year-over-year, with warmer weather and lower retail propane volumes at AmeriGas weighing on results; a cold winter miss could undermine the earnings recovery narrative.
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 69.2 and MACD histogram at 0.273 suggest near-term momentum is stretched; the stock has moved from the mid-$30s to $38.55 in a short period, increasing vulnerability to a pullback on any negative deal news.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Reuters news article, published 2026-08-18 · FMP fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · FMP fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2023-09-30 · peer_relative composite, as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on UGI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UGI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $483.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $435.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $333.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $239.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $157.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Northern Trust | $122.2M | 0.0% of fund |
72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 97 Form 4 filings, net −$5.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UGI
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.07× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | — | — |
7.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$45
$43 – $46 · +23% against today's price
- 6 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGIUGI Corporation | $8B | 11.7× | 9.1× | 46.7% | 9.2% | 13% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.6× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $7B | 20.7× | 13.8× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation | $5B | 14.0× | 11.4× | 28.3% | 16.4% | 14% |
| OGSONE Gas, Inc. | $5B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 74.6% | 12.5% | 8% |
| PCGPG&E Corporation | $33B | 8.9× | 9.2× | 56.2% | 12.3% | 10% |
| SRSpire Inc. | $5B | 8.5× | 13.5× | 32.7% | 21.6% | 16% |
| SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6B | 11.3× | 10.4× | 56.6% | 29.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 17.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.