Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA
ULTA is a buy following its Q2 2026 earnings beat that provided the first evidence of operating-margin stabilization after three consecutive years of compression. Q2 net sales grew 8.9% to $3 billion with operating profit up 10.1% and diluted EPS of $6.55 (up 13.3% YoY), prompting management to raise full-year EPS guidance to $28.70–$29.00.
At 18.8x trailing earnings—roughly 9% below the peer median P/E of 20.6x—the valuation offers a margin of safety while the business regains operating leverage, though smart money flows remain slightly negative at -0.0167 and the stock trades about 7% below its 200-day MA of $555.67.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression resumes. FY2025 operating margin fell to 12.5% from 16.2% in FY2022; one quarter of operating-profit growth outpacing revenue does not confirm a durable trend.
- Intensifying competition. The Q2 2026 earnings call explicitly flagged intensifying competition, which could pressure pricing and comp sales going forward.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score declined from 0.056 in mid-2025 to -0.0167 as of 2026-06-30, with fund count dropping from 61 to 59 quarter-over-quarter.
- Technical overhead. Stock at $517.50 trades ~7% below the 200-day MA of $555.67, creating potential resistance on any rally toward the long-term trend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: GuruFocus Q2 2026 earnings call highlights, published 2026-08-28 · MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, published 2026-08-27 · WSJ, published 2026-08-27 · FMP derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025 and 2022. Orin's read on ULTA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ULTA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $913.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $876.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $689.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $555.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $469.8M | 0.0% of fund |
79 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 51 Form 4 filings, net $66.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ULTA
Orin answers questions about ULTA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.7× | 20.1× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3× | 13.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.80× | 2.30× | — |
| P/B | 8.9× | 10.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.22σ from its own mean).
8.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$625
$525 – $731 · +15% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $23B | 19.7× | 13.3× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $19B | 15.1× | 8.1× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $22B | 28.6× | 16.9× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.4× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 9.1% | 56% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $18B | 495.2× | 32.4× | 36.2% | 0.1% | 1% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.1× | 9.9× | 24.5% | 11.6% | 15% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 16.8× | 12.2× | 32.5% | 6.4% | 39% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $27B | 23.0× | 14.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $548 | $476.04 · +15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $530 | $476.04 · +11% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.