Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ULTA remains a hold as the fundamental picture is genuinely mixed: revenue growth has re-accelerated with Q1 and Q2 FY2026 posting year-over-year gains of 11.1% and 8.9% respectively, the company raised its FY2026 outlook, and the stock has broken above both its 50-day ($545.75) and 200-day ($554.17) moving averages to $592.94 with a positive MACD histogram of +5.0.
However, operating margin has compressed for three consecutive fiscal years from 16.2% in FY2022 to 12.5% in FY2025, net income declined 4.0% in FY2025 following a 7.0% decline in FY2024, and the CEO sold 2,000 shares at $545.88 on September 17, 2026. At a P/E of 21.5, roughly in line with the peer median of 21.0, the post-rally valuation offers limited margin of safety while the margin trajectory remains unresolved.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin has declined for three straight fiscal years from 16.2% (FY2022) to 12.5% (FY2025), and FCF margin has fallen from 11.5% to 8.6% over the same period, eroding earnings power despite revenue growth.
- Insider selling signal. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold 4,837 shares worth approximately $2.44M with zero open-market acquisitions; the CEO's September 17, 2026 sale of 2,000 shares at $545.88 is the most recent cautionary data point.
- Valuation stretched after rally. The stock has rallied approximately 20.7% in three months to $592.94 with RSI at 64.6, leaving the P/E of 21.5 in line with the peer median of 21.0 with little relative discount remaining.
- Smart money disinterest. The smart money score as of Q2 2026 is a low 0.02 across 62 funds, and the score has been declining from 0.038 in Q2 2025, suggesting institutional conviction is tepid.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on ULTA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 19.9% over twelve months, from $522.82 on 27 Oct 2025 to $626.88 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $706.82 on 17 Feb 2026; the last close is 11.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.4M, on 5 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ULTA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $913.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $876.0M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $689.3M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $555.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $469.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $382.8M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $354.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $314.9M | 0.0% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 51 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ULTA
Orin answers questions about ULTA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.8×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.8×above usual | 19.8× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 2.07×below usual | 2.27× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0×above usual | 13.4× | — |
| P/B | 10.3×below usual | 10.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $630 (from $525 to $731) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$630
$525 – $731 · +1% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $27B | 22.8× | 15.0× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $21B | 16.4× | 8.7× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $26B | 33.4× | 19.4× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.8× | 14.4× | 33.3% | 8.8% | 56% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17B | 468× | 30.9× | 36.4% | 0.1% | 1% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.9× | 10.6× | 24.1% | 11.2% | 14% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Company | $17B | 17.3× | 12.4× | 31.5% | 6.1% | 38% |
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. | $29B | 25.3× | 15.2× | 47.2% | 14.7% | 58% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $484 a share — 23% below the $627.21 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $484 | 23% below $627.21 |
| Levered | $470 | 25% below $627.21 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.