Union Pacific Corporation UNP
Union Pacific's FY2025 EPS grew 7.9% to $11.97 with operating income of $9.84B, and the stock trades at a 16.7% P/E discount to the peer median of 28.9x, but revenue growth of just 1.1% to $24.51B and a declining FCF from $5.89B to $5.50B limit the upside. The pending NSC merger filing with the STB introduces a binary catalyst, while smart money scores have cooled from 0.23 in Q3 2025 to 0.05 in Q1 2026 and the MACD histogram has turned negative at -0.90.
With the stock already 17% above its 200-day MA at $297.79, the risk/reward is balanced pending merger clarity and volume reacceleration.
What could go wrong
- Merger regulatory block. The STB could reject or heavily condition the NSC merger, removing a key catalyst and potentially reversing the stock's recent premium.
- Volume stagnation. Revenue grew only 1.1% in FY2025 to $24.51B; if freight demand remains soft due to tariff tensions and supply-chain disruptions, EPS growth may decelerate.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score declined from 0.2265 in Q3 2025 to 0.047 in Q1 2026, suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as fund count rose to 68.
- FCF compression from rising capex. Capex increased to $3.79B in FY2025 from $3.45B, reducing FCF to $5.50B; further capex escalation could pressure shareholder returns given $31.8B in total debt.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2024 vs FY2025 · peer_relative composite · FMP fundamentals FY2024 vs FY2025. Orin's read on UNP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UNP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $7.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $7.4B | 0.9% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.7B | 0.6% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.3B | 0.2% of fund |
174 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 209 Form 4 filings, net $56.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UNP
Orin answers questions about UNP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.3× | 20.5× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5× | 13.6× | — |
| P/S | 6.44× | 5.71× | — |
| P/B | 7.9× | 10.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.35σ from its own mean).
13.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$333
$294 – $363 · +22% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $164B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 45.5% | 28.8% | 39% |
| ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. | $105B | 24.0× | 16.8× | 48.2% | 20.1% | 70% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $87B | 27.3× | 15.8× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| DEDeere & Company | $192B | 39.3× | 22.2× | 35.7% | 10.2% | 18% |
| ETNEaton Corporation plc | $170B | 44.5× | 29.6× | 35.9% | 12.8% | 20% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | $67B | 8.2× | 7.4× | 36.6% | 22.7% | 42% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $71B | 26.9× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $122B | 33.6× | 22.5× | 37.7% | 17.0% | 25% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 17.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $182 | $268.74 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $144 | $268.74 · −47% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.