United Parcel Service, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
UPS is a sell as profitability is collapsing even as revenue stabilizes—Q2 2026 revenue grew 7.6% YoY to $22.8B but operating income fell from $1.82B to $930M, signaling severe margin compression from surging fuel costs and the disruptive Amazon volume transition.
Full-year FY2025 operating margin compressed to 8.9% (from 13.0% in FY2022) while total debt ballooned to $32.3B against declining equity of $16.2B, and the stock trades at $93.96—below both its 50-day ($104.12) and 200-day ($105.14) moving averages with a deeply negative MACD. The valuation discount (P/E 17.08 vs. peer median 27.26) is a value trap, not an opportunity, with smart money fading (score 0.02 as of Q2 2026) and Bank of America cutting to sell on weaker domestic package volumes.
What could go wrong
- Fuel cost reversal. Q2 2026 gross profit fell to $3.03B from $3.78B in Q2 2025 despite higher revenue, driven by surging fuel costs; any sustained decline in fuel prices could rapidly restore margins.
- Amazon transition success. UPS is walking away from Amazon as largest customer while targeting network savings; if volume replacement and cost savings materialize faster than expected, the re-rating could be sharp from depressed levels.
- Oversold technical bounce. RSI at 34.8 and price 10% below the 50-day MA leaves room for a short-covering rally that could invalidate the bearish setup temporarily.
- Dividend sustainability concern. With FCF declining to $4.77B in FY2025 from $9.34B in FY2022 and debt at $32.3B, any concern about dividend coverage could trigger a further sell-off—or conversely, maintaining the payout could attract income buyers.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 25 Sep. Orin's read on UPS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 18.9% over twelve months, from $89.22 on 27 Oct 2025 to $106.09 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $120.00 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 11.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 34.6M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All UPS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $3.5B | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.7B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $956.9M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $950.4M | 0.1% |
122 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 126 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.2M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UPS
Orin answers questions about UPS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.7×above usual | 15.1× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.88×below usual | 1.49× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8×near usual | 10.0× | — |
| P/B | 6.0×below usual | 7.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $117 (from $76 to $132) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$117
$76 – $132 · +11% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (FDX 16.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $80B | 19.7× | 9.8× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $73B | 16.7× | 9.6× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $154 a share — 47% above the $105.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $154 | 47% above $105.03 |
| Levered | $104 | 1% below $105.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.