United Rentals, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
United Rentals is showing genuine operational reacceleration — Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.8% YoY, well above FY2025's 4.9% pace, with EPS beats of 10.7% in Q2 and 8.5% in Q1 and management raising full-year guidance on specialty rental strength (25% growth) and infrastructure/data-center demand.
However, FY2025 margin compression (gross margin fell to 35.4% from 37.2%, operating margin to 24.7% from 26.5%) and a thin FCF profile ($662M on $5.19B operating cash flow against $4.53B capex) raise questions about the quality of the recovery, while $16.5B in total debt and persistent insider net selling of $34.7M over 24 months — including $22.4M from the CEO in April 2026 — temper enthusiasm at 25.2x trailing P/E and 3.86x P/S, both well above peer medians. With the stock sitting just below its 50-day MA ($1,047.72) and a negative MACD histogram, the risk/reward into Q3 earnings on October 22 is balanced enough to wait for confirmation.
What could go wrong
- Margin deterioration. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 35.4% from 37.2% and operating margin to 24.7% from 26.5%; if Q3 2026 does not show margin stabilization, the growth-acceleration narrative weakens.
- Leverage and FCF constraints. Total debt reached $16.5B at year-end 2025 while FCF was only $662M against $4.53B in capex, limiting financial flexibility and buyback capacity.
- Insider selling pattern. Net insider dispositions of $34.7M over 24 months, including the CEO selling $22.4M in April 2026 and the CFO selling $1.7M in July 2026, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Valuation premium. P/S of 3.86x is 279% above the peer median of 1.02x and EV/EBITDA of 10.8x is 8.3% above the peer median of 9.9x, leaving limited margin of safety if growth disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on URI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 29.1% over twelve months, from $900.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,162.00 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,164.82 on 17 Aug 2026; the last close is 0.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.8M, on 29 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All URI filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 21 Oct | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 21 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 22 Jul | United Rentals, Inc. reported its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, via a press release filed on July 22, 2026. | read |
| 10-Q | 22 Jul | Total revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2026, were $4.410 billion, an increase of 11.8% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 18 Jun | United Rentals, Inc. extended its Amended A/R Facility to June 18, 2027, with potential 364-day extensions. | read |
| 8-K | 8 May | URI filed an 8-K on 2026-05-08 disclosing only the routine results of its annual stockholder meeting held the same day. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.2B | 0.3% |
| Franklin Resources | $2.0B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.7B | 0.1% |
103 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$34.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about URI
Orin answers questions about URI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.4×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.6×above usual | 17.4× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 4.13×above usual | 2.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3×above usual | 8.1× | — |
| P/B | 7.5×above usual | 4.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,293 (from $950 to $1,450) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,293
$950 – $1,450 · +11% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 42.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $72B | 25.6× | 11.3× | 38.5% | 16.3% | 31% |
| CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc. | $2B | 81.0× | 5.3× | 21.1% | 1.4% | 5% |
| EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc. | $4B | 188× | 11.2× | 28.4% | 1.2% | 5% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $6B | 16.5× | 16.8× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| HRIHerc Holdings Inc. | $5B | 42.4× | 7.6× | 26.0% | 2.5% | 6% |
| MGRCMcGrath RentCorp | $3B | 19.2× | 10.1× | 46.9% | 16.4% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.