United Rentals, Inc. URI
United Rentals remains a hold at $1,030.25, as the stock trades at an attractive 24.8x P/E and 11.7x EV/EBITDA — roughly 10% and 31% below peer medians respectively — but 2025 full-year results showed operating margin compression to 24.7% from 26.5% and a 3.2% net income decline despite 4.9% revenue growth. Total debt has climbed to $16.5B from $12.7B over two years, and persistent insider selling — net -$18.0M over 24 months including the CEO's $22.4M April disposal — alongside a bearish technical setup (price below the 50-day MA at $1,096.55, MACD histogram at -13.6) warrant caution despite smart money turning modestly positive at 0.128 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin fell to 24.7% in 2025 from 26.5% in 2024 and 26.9% in 2023; gross margin also declined to 35.4% from 37.2%, signaling cost or pricing pressure that could further erode profitability.
- Rising leverage. Total debt reached $16.5B against stockholders' equity of $9.0B as of FY2025, up from $12.7B two years earlier, increasing financial fragility if construction cycles turn.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of -$18.0M over 24 months, including the CEO's $22.4M sale in April 2026 and the CFO's July 2026 sale at $1,133 per share, suggest limited management conviction at current levels.
- Cyclical demand risk. Revenue growth has decelerated from 23.1% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025; a slowdown in infrastructure or construction spending could stall fleet utilization and rental rates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2023 · insider summary and transactions. Orin's read on URI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All URI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $2.0B | 0.4% of fund |
100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 90 Form 4 filings, net −$18.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about URI
Orin answers questions about URI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.9× | 17.4× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | 8.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.82× | 2.74× | — |
| P/B | 7.1× | 4.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.73σ from its own mean).
29.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1219
$903 – $1421 · +19% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $64B | 24.9× | 11.8× | 37.1% | 15.7% | 29% |
| AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc. | $36B | 181.5× | 85.3× | 59.4% | 6.2% | 6% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $69B | 15.9× | 9.3× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60B | 32.4× | 21.0× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $71B | 26.9× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $59B | 23.5× | 19.1× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $37B | 15.2× | 10.7× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $13 | $1069.28 · −99% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-123 | $1069.28 · −112% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.