USA Compression Partners, LP
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
USA Compression Partners is posting explosive post-acquisition revenue growth — Q2 2026 revenue of $342M rose 36.8% YoY and Q1 2026 rose 35.1% YoY — but the JW Power deal structurally compressed gross margin from 67.5% in FY2024 to 38.5% in FY2025, and that pressure persisted into Q2 2026 where gross profit was $129M on $342M of revenue.
With total debt of $2.55B against negative book equity of -$113M as of FY2025, leverage remains the central risk, while the stock at $25.39 trades below both its 50-day ($26.33) and 200-day ($26.62) moving averages with an RSI of 41.3. The 35% P/E discount to the peer median is offset by a 35% EV/EBITDA premium, keeping the valuation picture mixed and warranting a hold until gross-margin stabilization and synergy realization are confirmed at the November 3 Q3 2026 earnings release.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $2.55B as of FY2025 against negative stockholders' equity of -$113M leaves the partnership highly leveraged and vulnerable to interest-rate or demand shocks.
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin collapsed from 67.5% in FY2024 to 38.5% in FY2025 following the JW Power acquisition; Q2 2026 gross profit of $129M on $342M revenue shows no meaningful recovery yet.
- Earnings inconsistency. EPS surprises have been volatile: Q2 2026 beat by 11.4%, but Q1 2026 missed by 18% and Q4 2025 missed by 21.4%, raising questions about earnings quality and integration costs.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $25.39 is below both the 50-day MA of $26.33 and 200-day MA of $26.62, with MACD histogram negative and RSI at 41.3, indicating bearish momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on USAC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.8% over twelve months, from $23.34 on 3 Oct 2025 to $25.39 at the Mon 5 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $30.30 on 19 May 2026; the last close is 16.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.1M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All USAC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $322.3M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $163.5M | 0.2% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $104.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $74.8M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $67.9M | 0.0% |
| Blackstone | $17.6M | 0.1% |
| Citadel Advisors | $9.2M | 0.0% |
| Infrastructure Capital Advisors | $9.1M | 0.5% |
| Corient Private Wealth | $6.0M | 0.0% |
| Brookfield | $5.4M | 0.0% |
20 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$301K. Of the 50 on hand, 8 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about USAC
Orin answers questions about USAC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.7× its last 12 months of profit (Mon 5 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 32.7×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.7×below usual | 32.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.13×above usual | 2.71× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9×above usual | 9.4× | — |
| P/B | 12.8× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 2.9× to 96.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $30 (from $29 to $31) — 18% above the Mon 5 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$30
$29 – $31 · +18% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (KGS 53.9×, KNTK 16.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USACUSA Compression Partners, LP | $4B | 23.7× | 9.9× | 44.7% | 12.4% | n/m |
| KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc. | $5B | 53.9× | 7.9× | 40.1% | 5.8% | 6% |
| KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | $4B | 16.3× | 6.4× | 44.8% | 24.3% | n/m |
- USAC, KNTK: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.7× its last 12 months of profit (Mon 5 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $145 a share — 469% above the $25.39 price it was computed against (6 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $145 | 469% above $25.39 |
| Levered | $42 | 65% above $25.39 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.