Orin
USACNYSE·Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

USA Compression Partners, LP USAC

Market cap $3.7BP/E 23.9× trailingGross margin 44.7%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$25.36
−0.17 (−0.67%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $21.85 – $30.55
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 26 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

USA Compression Partners posted a Q2 2026 earnings and revenue beat with maintained full-year guidance, and 2025 full-year results show revenue of $998M (up 5.0% YoY) with FCF inflecting to $277M from $136M in 2024 as CapEx moderated to $117M. However, gross margin collapsed to 38.5% in 2025 from 67.5% in 2024 — a structural shift likely tied to the J-W acquisition cost structure — while total debt of $2.55B and negative book equity of -$113M underscore balance-sheet fragility.

The partnership trades at a 42% P/E discount to peers but a 34% EV/EBITDA premium, making the valuation picture mixed; with insider buying at recent prices and improving smart-money flow (fund count rising to 16 as of Q2 2026), the setup is constructive but not clean enough to justify a buy until gross-margin normalization is confirmed.

What could go wrong

  • Gross margin compression. Gross margin fell to 38.5% in 2025 from 67.5% in 2024, a dramatic shift that could signal permanent cost-structure changes from the J-W acquisition or rising input costs that erode unit economics.
  • Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $2.55B against negative stockholders' equity of -$113M as of FY2025 leaves minimal cushion; any revenue softness or rate-driven interest expense increase could pressure coverage.
  • EV/EBITDA premium to peers. EV/EBITDA of 10.2 is 34% above the peer median of 7.6, suggesting the market has priced in acquisition synergies that may not fully materialize.
  • CapEx re-acceleration. FCF improvement to $277M in 2025 depended on CapEx falling to $117M from $205M in 2024; if fleet expansion needs resurface, FCF could compress again.

What would change my mind

Gross margin recovery. Next two quarterly reports show gross margin returning above 55%, indicating the 2025 compression was transitional rather than structuralbullish
Debt reduction. Total debt declines below $2.4B with operating cash flow sustaining above $390M annualized, demonstrating deleveraging capacitybullish
Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue growth falls below 3% YoY for two consecutive quarters, signaling J-W integration synergies are exhaustedbearish
Distribution coverage deterioration. Operating cash flow fails to cover distributions plus interest expense for two consecutive quartersbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article 2026-08-11; MarketBeat earnings call highlights 2026-08-09 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on USAC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Invesco$322.3M0.0% of fund
Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings$163.5M0.2% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$104.3M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$74.8M0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$67.9M0.0% of fund
Blackstone$17.6M0.1% of fund

19 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings, net −$2.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 8 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Energy
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E23.9×—51.1×
EV/EBITDA9.9×——
P/S3.15×——
P/B12.9×——
What the price assumes

2.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

19 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$30

$29 – $31 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 7 hold
  • 4 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 39.4× of 2 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
USACUSA Compression Partners, LP$4B23.9×9.9×44.7%12.4%141%
KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc.$5B60.0×8.7×40.1%5.8%6%
KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc.$4B18.8×5.3×40.1%25.3%-37%

The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 39.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 27.7×FY25 27.1×

What its sector has traded at

Energy
FY14 27.3×FY26 19.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $25.36
52-week range$22 – $31
Analyst targets$29 – $31
At sector P/E (51×)$55

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.