U.S. Bancorp USB
U.S. Bancorp's FY2025 results show genuine earnings leverage — EPS rose 21.6% to $4.61 on operating margin expansion to 22.2% from 18.5% — but revenue growth was nearly flat at 0.35% YoY and free cash flow declined from $11.3B to $8.0B.
The stock trades at a 30.3% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median (11.5x vs 16.6x), though P/E at 12.3x is roughly in line with the peer median of 12.2x, suggesting the discount reflects structural leverage differences rather than a clear mispricing. Technicals are deteriorating with a bearish MACD histogram (-0.33) and the stock below its 50-day MA of $62.84, while insider net selling of $39.4M over the trailing 24 months and a GuruFocus DCF pegging intrinsic value at $58 versus the current price near $62 cap near-term upside despite smart money turning modestly positive (0.0972 as of Q2 2026).
What could go wrong
- Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue growth of just 0.35% YoY against $42.71B in FY2024 suggests the Union Bank integration synergies may be largely captured, limiting top-line upside.
- Free cash flow decline. FCF fell from $11.3B in FY2024 to $8.0B in FY2025, potentially constraining capital return flexibility if the trend persists.
- Insider selling pattern. CEO Kedia and other senior executives exercised options and sold shares in July-August 2026; 24-month net insider value is -$39.4M.
- Rate-sensitive margin compression. As a regional bank, USB's net interest income is vulnerable to further Fed rate cuts that could pressure net interest margins despite the improving operating margin trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics + fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2024 vs FY2025. Orin's read on USB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All USB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
123 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 116 Form 4 filings, net −$39.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about USB
Orin answers questions about USB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7× | 11.1× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1× | 10.4× | — |
| P/S | 2.08× | 1.94× | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.48σ from its own mean).
0.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$70
$66 – $75 · +18% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $91B | 11.7× | 11.1× | 63.8% | 18.7% | 12% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89B | 12.3× | 15.0× | 67.9% | 21.7% | 12% |
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 10.7× | 17.0× | 64.0% | 19.1% | 9% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $73 | $57.45 · +27% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $178 | $57.45 · +210% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.