VICI Properties Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
VICI Properties trades at a P/E of 8.84 — a 69.9% discount to the diversified REIT peer median of 29.39 — while generating 99.3% gross margins and $2.51B in FY2025 free cash flow under its triple-net lease model as of the year ended 31 Dec 2025.
The stock has sold off to $22.79 as of 8 Oct with an RSI of 30.01, below both its 50-day ($25.05) and 200-day ($27.32) moving averages, creating an oversold entry point where Q2 2026 revenue still grew 5.7% YoY to $1.06B and multiple insiders acquired shares on 1 Oct. The combination of extreme valuation compression, durable contractual cash flows from trophy gaming assets, and technically washed-out conditions supports accumulation despite near-term EPS volatility.
What could go wrong
- Tenant concentration. Caesars (~38%) and MGM (~32%) together account for roughly 70% of rent per Seeking Alpha coverage; any credit deterioration at either operator would directly impair cash flow.
- Rising rate environment. The 10-year Treasury at 5.3% per recent news narrows the yield spread VICI offers, pressuring the share price as long-duration income alternatives become more competitive.
- Quarterly EPS volatility. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.48 missed the $0.713 estimate by 32.7%, following a Q4 2025 miss of 18.1%, suggesting earnings predictability has deteriorated even as revenue growth remains steady.
- Elevated debt load. Total debt of $17.69B as of FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $27.80B leaves refinancing exposure in a higher-rate regime.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · technicals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on VICI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 23.5% over twelve months, from $30.97 on 27 Oct 2025 to $23.70 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $30.97 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 23.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 28.6M, on 17 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VICI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $778.7M | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $638.3M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $574.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $461.4M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $435.8M | 0.1% |
101 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 73 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VICI
Orin answers questions about VICI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 12.9×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2×below usual | 12.9× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 6.37×below usual | 8.95× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9×below usual | 14.7× | — |
| P/B | 0.9×below usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $28.73 (from $24 to $32) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$28.73
$24 – $32 · +21% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 36.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | $26B | 9.2× | 11.9× | n/a | 67.5% | 10% |
| AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $26B | 25.2× | 18.8× | n/a | 33.4% | 9% |
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $38B | 36.6× | 23.0× | n/a | 25.3% | n/m |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | $13B | 73.2× | 26.6× | 76.2% | 4.9% | 2% |
| VMRKEquity Residential | $24B | 233× | 10.8× | n/a | −4.2% | −1% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $31B | 29.4× | 12.8× | n/a | 29.3% | 8% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $31B | 68.5× | 13.8× | n/a | 5.9% | n/m |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.7× | 15.4× | n/a | 18.2% | 7% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $20B | 19.8× | 17.1× | n/a | 34.5% | n/m |
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $43B | 203× | 23.7× | n/a | 3.0% | 2% |
- CCI, IRM, SBAC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- VICI, AVB, CCI, VMRK, EXR, IRM, MAA, SBAC, VTR: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $127 a share — 436% above the $23.77 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $127 | 436% above $23.77 |
| Levered | $77 | 226% above $23.77 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.