VICI Properties Inc. VICI
VICI Properties trades at a P/E of 9.19 — a 69% discount to the diversified REIT peer median of 29.55 — with ~99% gross margins, $2.51B in FY2025 free cash flow, and negligible $1.3M capex under its triple-net lease model as of the year ended 2025-12-31. However, Q2 2026 EPS fell to $0.48 from $0.82 in the year-ago quarter, missing estimates by 13%, and the stock has declined to $23.70 as of 2026-09-23 with an RSI of 27.58, trading below both its 50-day ($25.89) and 200-day ($27.60) moving averages.
The combination of deteriorating quarterly profitability, bearish technicals, a very low smart money score of 0.0115 as of 2026-06-30, and negative news flow including a published sell downgrade citing refinancing risk warrants patience despite the compelling valuation discount.
What could go wrong
- Refinancing cost pressure. Total debt of $17.69B as of FY2025; upcoming maturities could be repriced above current fixed coupons, compressing AFFO and coverage.
- Quarterly earnings volatility. Q2 2026 operating income fell to $744.7M from $1.10B in Q2 2025, and EPS missed estimates by 13% — two of the last three quarterly surprises were negative.
- Inflation eroding real rent. Capped rent escalators may not preserve real rental income if inflation remains above 3%, limiting organic growth despite 4–6% headline revenue growth.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $23.70 is below both MA 50 ($25.89) and MA 200 ($27.60) with negative MACD histogram of -0.111; deeply oversold RSI of 27.58 could signal further selling pressure rather than a reversal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · FMP FY2025 annual · quarterly_results Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises 2026-07-29. Orin's read on VICI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VICI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $778.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $638.3M | 0.1% of fund |
98 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 65 Form 4 filings, net −$2.0M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VICI
Orin answers questions about VICI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0× | 12.9× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | 14.7× | — |
| P/S | 6.25× | 8.95× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.19σ from its own mean).
-1.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$29
$26 – $32 · +24% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | $26B | 9.0× | 11.8× | 99.3% | 67.5% | 10% |
| AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $26B | 25.2× | 18.8× | 52.7% | 33.4% | 9% |
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $30B | 27.4× | 19.1× | 63.2% | 25.8% | -52% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | $11B | 151.6× | 26.7× | 76.5% | 2.1% | 1% |
| EQREquity Residential | $24B | 27.6× | 14.3× | 46.0% | 27.9% | 8% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $28B | 29.2× | 13.2× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $34B | 81.5× | 21.3× | 54.2% | 5.5% | -38% |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.3× | 15.3× | 47.3% | 18.2% | 7% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $18B | 17.8× | 15.5× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $42B | 157.9× | 22.3× | -2.6% | 4.1% | 2% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 69.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $142 | $28.50 · +400% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $89 | $28.50 · +213% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.