Valero Energy Corporation VLO
Valero's fundamental backdrop is genuinely strong — geopolitical disruptions to global refining capacity are creating a structural shortfall that supports crack spreads, smart money accumulation has intensified (score rising from 0.009 in Dec 2024 to 0.0756 in June 2026 with fund count growing from 41 to 58), and the EV/EBITDA of 7.68x sits at a 10% discount to the peer median of 8.57x. However, at $341.67 the stock is dangerously extended — RSI at 72.88, trading 20% above the 50-day MA ($284.12) and 51% above the 200-day MA ($226.27) — pricing in a best-case scenario.
Persistent insider selling (24-month net value of -$34M; SVP Fisher sold 22,500 shares at $237–268 in May–June 2026) and the risk that any de-escalation could rapidly compress refining margins argue against chasing at these levels. Hold existing positions but await a pullback for new entry.
What could go wrong
- Geopolitical de-escalation. Easing of Ukraine/Iran disruptions could restore global refining capacity and compress crack spreads, reversing the margin tailwind driving VLO's 2026 earnings recovery.
- Technical correction. RSI at 72.88 with the stock 51% above its 200-day MA ($226.27) leaves it vulnerable to a sharp mean-reversion pullback.
- Insider distribution. 24-month net insider value of -$34M with no cluster buying; SVP Fisher has been systematically selling into strength at progressively higher prices.
- Earnings normalization. FY2025 EPS of $7.57 is well below the 2022–2023 peak of $24.95–$29.00; if geopolitical premiums fade, earnings could revert toward the lower end of the cycle.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals as of 2026-08-14 · peer_relative · smart_money 13F composite · insider transactions. Orin's read on VLO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VLO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
127 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 142 Form 4 filings, net −$34.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VLO
Orin answers questions about VLO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.9× | 14.3× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6× | 6.6× | — |
| P/S | 0.83× | 0.30× | — |
| P/B | 4.5× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.02σ from its own mean).
9.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$382
$203 – $457 · +2% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $110B | 15.9× | 8.6× | 11.3% | 5.4% | 30% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.1× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.0× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $114B | 13.5× | 8.1× | 11.6% | 5.6% | 49% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $103B | 14.5× | 9.3× | 9.8% | 4.6% | 24% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $76B | 24.7× | 12.1× | 16.5% | 8.5% | 12% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $362 | $262.97 · +38% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $377 | $262.97 · +43% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.