Vulcan Materials Company VMC
Vulcan Materials remains a fundamentally solid aggregates franchise—FY2025 EPS grew 18.5% to $8.12, operating margin expanded to 20.1%, and free cash flow reached $1.14B—but Q2 2026 revealed decelerating momentum with revenue growth of just 2.5% YoY and operating income declining to $425M from $471M in the year-ago quarter. The stock has pulled back to $259.69 from prior levels, pushing RSI to an oversold 33.4, yet it still trades at 30.6x earnings versus a peer median of 20.1x, and the technical trend remains bearish with price well below both the 50-day ($285.1) and 200-day ($288.7) moving averages.
With insiders net sellers at -$94.7M over 24 months and smart money essentially neutral at -0.01 as of Q2 2026, the improving but decelerating fundamentals do not yet justify adding to a position at this premium valuation.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 30.6x earnings, VMC trades at a 52% premium to the peer median of 20.1x, leaving limited room for multiple compression if growth disappoints.
- Q2 operating income decline. Q2 2026 operating income fell to $425M from $471M in Q2 2025, suggesting margin pressure from energy costs is intensifying despite pricing strength.
- Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of -$94.7M over 24 months with no cluster buys; recent August 2026 transactions show continued selling by Hill J Thomas.
- Bearish technical trend. Stock at $259.69 is below both MA50 ($285.1) and MA200 ($288.7) with negative MACD histogram of -1.02, indicating downtrend is intact despite oversold RSI of 33.4.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · quarterly_results Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-09-01. Orin's read on VMC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VMC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $5.4B | 1.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings, net −$94.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VMC
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.8× | 37.3× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2× | 18.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.91× | 4.59× | — |
| P/B | 3.8× | 4.2× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.55σ from its own mean).
12.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$315
$254 – $349 · +29% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $32B | 28.8× | 14.2× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $54B | 53.3× | 17.4× | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29B | 12.0× | 16.9× | 28.2% | 36.8% | 23% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $56B | 19.7× | 10.8× | 15.5% | 8.0% | 14% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $238 | $274.67 · −13% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $186 | $274.67 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.